Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD battle around $5,000 continues

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,991

US markets are closed at the beginning of the week amid the celebration of Presidents’ Day.
Nuclear talks between the United States and Iran will take place in Geneva on Tuesday.
XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, sellers defend the $5.000 threshold.

Spot Gold has spent most of this Monday trading in a tight range around the $5,000 mark, shedding some ground in the American afternoon, yet lacking directional momentum. A holiday in the United States (US), as the country celebrates Presidents’ Day, exacerbates the quietness after the European close.

Still, the Greenback trades with modest gains across most major rivals, as recent US data hinted at resilient economic progress, while leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. A clearer picture should appear on Friday, when the US will publish Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. On the same day, the country will release the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In the meantime, investors will look at political headlines for direction. Negotiations between the US and Iran are set to continue on Tuesday, in Geneva, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announcing he is coming with “real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal.”

At the same time, US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend. Trump said afterwards that he would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-chart shows that XAU/USD is neutral. The pair seesaws right below a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which converges with the 100-period SMA, limiting advances around $5,020. The 200-period SMA at $4,810.85 maintains a modest upward slope, providing relevant support. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere within neutral levels, reflecting the absence of a certain trend.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD battles to remain above a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps rising above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 20-day SMA currently stands at $4,988.67, offering immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, indicating bearish pressure building as upside impetus fades. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also heads south yet at 54, not enough to confirm lower lows ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.