Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD battle around $5,000 continues

XAU/USD Current price: $4,991

• US markets are closed at the beginning of the week amid the celebration of Presidents’ Day.
• Nuclear talks between the United States and Iran will take place in Geneva on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, sellers defend the $5.000 threshold.

Spot Gold has spent most of this Monday trading in a tight range around the $5,000 mark, shedding some ground in the American afternoon, yet lacking directional momentum. A holiday in the United States (US), as the country celebrates Presidents’ Day, exacerbates the quietness after the European close.

Still, the Greenback trades with modest gains across most major rivals, as recent US data hinted at resilient economic progress, while leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. A clearer picture should appear on Friday, when the US will publish Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. On the same day, the country will release the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In the meantime, investors will look at political headlines for direction. Negotiations between the US and Iran are set to continue on Tuesday, in Geneva, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announcing he is coming with “real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal.”

At the same time, US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend.  Trump said afterwards that he would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-chart shows that XAU/USD is neutral. The pair seesaws right below a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which converges with the 100-period SMA, limiting advances around $5,020. The 200-period SMA at $4,810.85 maintains a modest upward slope, providing relevant support. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere within neutral levels, reflecting the absence of a certain trend.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD battles to remain above a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps rising above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 20-day SMA currently stands at $4,988.67, offering immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, indicating bearish pressure building as upside impetus fades. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also heads south yet at 54, not enough to confirm lower lows ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)