Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
GBPUSD
Sterling stands at the front foot in early Friday's trading and attempts to extend recovery from Thursday's spike low at 1.3004. Fresh bulls probe through pivotal barrier at 1.3148 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3381/1.3004 descend) clear break of which would allow for further recovery and possible test of converged 20/10SMA's (1.3191/1.3207), former strong support, now reverted to solid resistance. Thick 4-hr cloud (spanned between 1.3170 and 1.3222) also marks strong obstacle and weighs on near-term action. Surprise positive reaction on EU's approval of Brexit delay (initially to 12 Apr, with possible extension to 22 May) pushed sterling from dangerous zone (200SMA / 11 Mar trough at 1.2982/60 respectively) but the downside remains vulnerable due to persisting uncertainty. PM May faces tough work in coming days as chances of eventually passing her plan through the parliament remain low that keeps in play high risk of chaotic scenario on no-deal exit. Also, possibilities of further Brexit delay or even revoking Article 50 remain on the table that further complicates the situation. Scenario of limited recovery before bears re-take control looks likely as technical studies are mixed on daily chart and sentiment remains weak, with additional pressure from thickening weekly cloud. Fresh bearish acceleration would challenge again 200SMA and firm break here and below 1.2960 higher low would expose next strong supports at 1.2927/18 (daily cloud top / 100SMA). Only break and close above 20/10SMA's would sideline existing downside risk.
Res: 1.3170; 1.3191; 1.3207; 1.3222
Sup: 1.3107; 1.3061; 1.3037; 1.3004
Interested in GBPUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.