GBP/USD Forecast: Rising from the hangover? Not so fast, as vaccine issues grip markets

After 97 days, Brits got back to their beloved pubs – and sterling now suffers a hangover, albeit from different reasons. US authorities have asked to pause the administration of Johnson & Johnson's single-shot vaccines, dealing a blow to America's immunization drive. The move came after six women developed blood clots and despite the fact that nearly seven million people received the shot. Markets have turned down and the safe-haven dollar is rising. 

Thrombosis – as blood clots are also known – has been dogging AstraZeneca's jabs that are in wide use in Britain and the news may trigger people to hesitate with inoculations. One of the pound's positive drivers has been the UK's successful vaccination campaign, with doses now offered to people 45 and older. 

Another factor weighing on sterling is the minor miss in February's growth figures – the British economy grew by 0.4% two months ago, below 0.5% projected. 

The J&J news seems to overshadow tensions related to the upcoming release of US inflation figures, which are set to bump higher due to base effects and also to several supply issues. 

US Inflation Cheat Sheet: Dollar selling opportunity? Three scenarios for the critical event

All in all, cable's recovery has been cut short.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar is suffering from downside momentum on the four-hour chart and trades below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Its failure to recapture the broken uptrend support line also points to further falls.

Support awaits at 1.3705, with the triple bottom of 1.3670 being the critical cushion. Further down, 1.3630 is eyed.

Some resistance is at 1.3750, followed by 1.3780, 1.3820, and 1.3850.