FX update – Wait ‘n’ see mode

NZD/USD, H1

Currencies have been seeing narrow ranges so far today after yesterday’s fresh bout of risk-on positioning. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars still edged out respective eight-day and eight-month highs, but there wasn’t much appetite for follow-through and both currencies ebbed back. Stock markets have come off the boil today in Asia after rallying strongly yesterday, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its outperforming streak and posted a new 29-year high. Yesterday the DJIA and the S&P 500 posted fresh record closing highs, as did the MSCI World Index. The GER30 is little changed at 13,120 and the UK100 slid sideways around 6,400.

Among currencies, the DXY dollar index has been plying a narrow range just above yesterday’s eight-day low at 92.47. EURUSD has been similarly directionally challenged, holding just off from yesterday’s one-week peak at 1.1869. USDJPY has settled above the one-week low seen yesterday at 104.36, which corrected just over a 50% retrace of the strong gains seen last Monday during the initial height of the so-called ‘Covid vaccine’ global equity market rally.

The Pound has been trading neutrally, and is showing modest losses versus most peer currencies from week-ago levels but modest gains versus the same currencies from month-ago levels, and registers as the weakest of the main currencies on the year-to-date. The Brexit endgame drama is reaching fever pitch. Neither the EU or UK has blinked yet in trade talks. The UK’s trade negotiator Frost said that a  deal could be reached by next Tuesday (November 24), while an EU diplomat cited in the Sun tabloid said chiefs are working to avoid an “accidental no deal.” Market participants, meanwhile, are not committing, waiting on concrete developments. However, expectations are for a deal, and there is anticipation of a limited rally in the Pound as and when this becomes apparent.