TRENDING:

XAU/USD

EUR/USD

Forex market outlook – Monthly charts analysis

FxPro Traders Research Team FxPro Traders

This analysis is based on the provided monthly charts for the following major currency pairs: USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD. The charts incorporate candlestick patterns, Bollinger Bands, and a Z-score momentum indicator to assess potential long-term trends and key levels.

Key indicators

Candlestick Patterns: Used to identify potential reversals and continuations of price trends.

Bollinger Bands: A volatility indicator that helps identify potential overbought or oversold conditions and price breakouts.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: Measures how far current price momentum deviates from its average. A high positive Z-score suggests strong upward momentum (potentially overbought), while a low negative Z-score indicates strong downward momentum (potentially oversold).

USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)

Long-Term Trend: Strong long-term uptrend.

Key levels: Support around 142.193, 100.00, and 80.00. Resistance around 160.00.

Bollinger Bands: Price consolidating near the middle band.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: Shows a recent dip, indicating slowing upward momentum.

Overall Analysis: The slowing Z-score momentum supports the idea of a potential pullback. If the Z-score continues to decline while the price remains near the middle Bollinger Band, a test of the 142.193 support level becomes more likely. The overall bullish trend is still in place, but traders should watch for confirmation of the momentum shift.

NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar)

Long-Term Trend: Long-term downtrend.

Key Levels: Support around 0.5338 and 0.4950. Resistance around 0.7200.

Bollinger Bands: Price below the middle band.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: Showing signs of upward movement, suggesting a potential short-term correction.

Overall Analysis: The rising Z-score suggests a potential correction within the downtrend. However, as long as the Z-score remains below the zero line and the price stays below the middle Bollinger Band, the bearish bias remains. Traders should be cautious of chasing the upward move and look for potential selling opportunities at resistance levels.

GBP/USD (Great Britain Pound / US Dollar)

Long-Term Trend: Volatile, with a downtrend followed by a recovery.

Key Levels: Support around 1.2707 and 1.0400. Resistance around 1.7920.

Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, potentially overbought.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: In overbought territory.

Overall Analysis: The overbought Z-score reinforces the possibility of a pullback. Combined with the price being near the upper Bollinger Band, this suggests that the recent upward move may be losing steam. A correction towards the 1.2707 support is a reasonable expectation.

EUR/USD (Euro / US Dollar)

Long-Term Trend: Consolidation within a broader downtrend.

Key Levels: Support around 1.0750 and 1.0257. Resistance around 1.1394.

Bollinger Bands: Price recently moved above the middle band.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: Showing upward movement.

Overall Analysis: The rising Z-score supports the bullish move above the middle Bollinger Band. This suggests that the consolidation might be breaking to the upside. However, traders should watch if the Z-score starts to decline before the price reaches the 1.1394 resistance. This could be an early warning sign of a failed breakout.

AUD/USD (Australian Dollar / US Dollar)

Long-Term Trend: Downtrend.

Key levels: Support around 0.6377 and 0.6110. Resistance around 0.7675.

Bollinger Bands: Price below the middle band.

Z-Score Momentum Indicator: Coming out of oversold territory.

Overall Analysis: The Z-score's move out of oversold territory suggests a potential corrective bounce. However, the overall downtrend remains in control. Traders should monitor if the Z-score reaches the zero line or crosses above it. A failure to do so would indicate continued bearish momentum, and the price is likely to test the 0.6377 support again.

Author

FxPro Traders Research Team

FxPro Traders

The FxPro Traders Research Team delivers advanced analysis and strategies designed to empower your success in today's dynamic forex markets.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Solana extends correction despite ETF inflows, RWA adoption

Solana (SOL) price edges below $70 extending its losses for the fourth straight day this week. The institutional demand for Solana is building, with steady inflows so far this week and Morgan Stanley’s amended S-1 filing for a Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Fund.

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.