Forecasting the upcoming week: US PCE data, PMIs and Fedspeak should set the tone

The US Dollar (USD) staged a meaningful comeback this week, rebounding from three-year lows recorded in the first half of the week to end the week with modest gains after a positive reaction to the Fed’s interest rate cut and Chief Powell’s upbeat press conference.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose for the third consecutive day on Friday, managing to advance slightly on the weekly charts and come close to the 98.00 barrier. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index will kickstart the calendar on September 22. The Current Account results will be released on September 23, followed by preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due on September 24, prior to New Home Sales, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published on September 25, seconded by Durable Goods Orders, the final Q2 GDP Growth Rate, Existing Home Sales, and Wholesale Inventories. Wrapping up the docket, the PCE is due on September 26, followed by the final U-Mich Consumer Sentiment.

Despite the post-Fed resumption of a strong bearish bias, EUR/USD managed to close the week with humble gains, extending the positive streak for the third week in a row. The European Commission’s falsh Consumer Confidence gauge is due on September 22. The advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the Euroland are expected on September 23, while the IFO’s Business Climate in Germany will be published on September 24. The German Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK will come on September 25, followed by the ECB’s M3 Money Supply. On September 26, the ECB will release its Consumer Inflation Expectations survey.

A dreadful second half of the week for the British Pound was enough to prompt GBP/USD to end the week with decent losses, returning to the 1.3460 zone despite surpassing the 1.3700 barrier in the wake of the Fed’s decision to trim rates. The preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on September 23, seconded by the CBI Industrial Trends Orders. On September 25 will come the annualised Car Production figures and the CBI Distributive Trades.

Another choppy week saw USD/JPY extend its recent gains, although they remain capped by the key 200-day SMA around 148.50 for now. The flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released on September 24, while the BoJ will publish its Minutes on September 25. The Tokyo Inflation Rate will close the calendar on September 26 followed by the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures.

It was too good to be true. AUD/USD rapidly reversed its move to levels above the 0.6700 hurdle to end the week on the back foot after three consecutive advances. The advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected on September 23, while the Monthly CPI Indicator is due on September 24.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Williams, Musalem, Barkin and Hammack are all due to speak on September 22, alongside the BoE’s Pill and Bailey.
• The Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, and Powell speak on September 23, seconded by the ECB’s Cipollone and the BoE’s Pill.
• The Fed’s Daly and the ECB’s Machado speak on September 24, along with the BoE’s Greene.
• The Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, and Daly will speak on September 24.
• The Fed’s Hammack, Barkin, Bowman, and Musalem will speak on September 26, along with the ECB’s Lagarde and the BoJ’s Noguchi.
• The Fed’s Bostic speaks on September 27.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The Riksbank will meet on September 23 (2.00% act. vs. 2.00% exp.), as well as the MNB (6.50% act. vs. 6.50% exp.).
• The SNB will decide on rates on September 25 (0.00% act. vs. 0.00% exp.).