Forecasting the upcoming week: US Payrolls and “Liberation Day” take centre stage

The Greenback was unable to sustain its early-week advance, eventually reversing course and ending the week with a modest pullback amid persistent concerns over the US economy, while the tariff narrative remained murky.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week virtually unchanged following its previous gains, against a backdrop of erratic US yields, ongoing tariff worries, and fears of a potential US economic slowdown. The ISM Manufacturing PMI takes center stage on April 1, followed by JOLTs Job Openings, Construction Spending, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the RCM/IPP Economic Optimism Index—all ahead of the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. On April 2, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Factory Orders, the ADP Employment Change, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles are due. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Balance of Trade results, the ISM Services PMI, and the final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on April 3, while the Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will be the main highlights on April 4.

EUR/USD advanced modestly, rebounding from the 1.0730 zone after flirting with its critical 200-day SMA. Germany’s advanced Inflation Rate is due on March 31, alongside Retail Sales and Import Prices. The final HCOB Manufacturing PMI for both Germany and the euro area will be released on April 1, followed by the bloc’s preliminary Inflation Rate and the Unemployment Rate. The final HCOB Services PMI for Germany and the euro area is expected on April 3, along with EMU’s Producer Prices and the ECB Accounts. Germany’s Factory Orders are due on April 4, ahead of the HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the euro zone.

Despite a choppy week, GBP/USD managed decent gains above the 1.2900 barrier, as investors digested the Spring Statement, UK inflation, and upbeat Retail Sales figures. The BoE’s Consumer Credit, M4 Money Supply, and Net Lending to Individuals are due on March 31, along with Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending data. The Nationwide Housing Prices are slated for April 1, followed by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, while the final S&P Global Services PMI will wrap up the UK docket on April 3.

USD/JPY climbed for the third consecutive week despite facing significant selling pressure on Friday, which saw the pair pull back from fresh highs above 151.00 to slip below 150.00 by the day’s end. Preliminary Industrial Production readings are due on March 31, alongside Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Construction Orders. The Unemployment Rate is expected on April 1, ahead of the Tankan Survey and the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI. Weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are scheduled for April 3, together with the final Jibun Bank Services PMI, while the Household Spending report will headline the April 4 calendar.

AUD/USD saw further volatility but managed to reverse the previous week’s drop, posting solid gains in recent sessions—though a decisive break above 0.6300 remained elusive. Housing Credit data, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and Private Sector Credit will open the calendar on March 31. The RBA’s interest rate decision on April 1 will take center stage, followed by Retail Sales. Building Permits and Private House Approvals will come on April 2, alongside the final S&P Global Services PMI. Balance of Trade figures are due on April 3, along with the RBA’s Financial Stability Review.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The BoE’s Greene speaks on April 1, along with the ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, and the Fed’s Barkin.

- The RBA’s Kent, the ECB’s Schnabel, and Lane, and the Fed’s Kugler speak on April 2.

- The RBA’s Bullock will speak on April 3, followed by the ECB’s De Guindos, and the Fed’s Jefferson and Cook.

- The Fed’s Powell, Barr, and Waller will speak on April 4.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The RBA will meet on April 1 (4.10% exp, unch).

- The NBP will decide on rates on April 2 (5.75% exp, unch).