Forecasting the upcoming week: Investors’ focus remain on tariffs, the Fed and inflation

The Greenback ended a turbulent week on a sour note, tumbling to levels not seen since September 2024 as investors digested Trump’s “Liberation Day” and continued to grapple with persistent economic slowdown fears.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week on the defensive and challenging its key 200-week SMA in the mid-102.00s, all against the backdrop of a marked retracement in US yields across the board. The NFIB Business Optimism Index is due on April 8 seconded by the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. On April 9, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories, and the FOMC Minutes are all due. The Inflation Rate will take centre stage on April 10, followed by the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Producer Prices will be published on April 11, seconded by the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD rose for the second consecutive week and revisited the area north of 1.1100 the figure in the wake of fresh tariffs announced by the White House. Germany’s Balance of Trade results and the EMU’s Retail Sales are expected on April 7. The final Inflation Rate in Germany comes on April 11 along with Current Account results.

Despite hitting ulti-month levels just above 1.3200, GBP/USD ended the week almost unchanged in the low-1.2900s. The Halifax House Price Index will kickstart the week on April 7. The GDP figures , Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due on April 11.

USD/JPY reversed three consecutive weekly advances, dropping to the 144.50 region for the first time since late September in the wake of “Liberation Day”. The Average Cash Earnings will come on April 7, seconded by the flash Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index. On April 8 comes the Eco Watchers survey along with Current Account results and Bank Lending figures. Consumer Confidence and Machine Tool Orders are due on April 9. Producer Prices and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment prints will close the docket on April 10.

AUD/USD collapsed to the proximity of the 0.6000 mark on Friday, an area last visited in April 2020. The Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge and the NAB Business Confidence are due on April 8, while Building Permits and Private House Approvals will be released on April 9. Consumer Inflation Expectations are expected on April 10.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The Fed’s Kugler speaks on April 7, along with the ECB’s Cipollone.

- The Fed’s Daly will speak on April 8, seconded by the ECB’s De Guindos and Cipollone.

- The BoJ’s Ueda speaks on April 9, followed by the Fed’s Barkin, and the ECB’s Cipollone.

- The RBA’s Bullock will speak on April 10, along with the Fed’s Logan and Goolsbee and the ECB’s Montagner, Tuominen, Buch, and Donnery.

- The ECB’s Lagarde speaks on April 11, ahead of the Fed’s Musalem and Williams.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The RBNZ will meet on April 9 (3.75% act, 3.50% exp).