Forecasting the upcoming week: Attention will be on US data, FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar (USD) chalked up a second straight week of losses, extending its pullback from early-November highs. Investors have been weighing the reopening of the US federal government, the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, a brighter risk mood, and a backlog of US data that should offer clearer clues on the Fed’s policy path.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended its second consecutive week in the red, this time challenging the key 99.00 contention zone as investors continued to gauge the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts against the slew of upcoming US data releases. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due on November 17. The ADP Employment Change Weekly is expected on November 18, seconded by the NAHB Housing Market Index and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. On November 19 will come the usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications prior to the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles, and the FOMC Minutes. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released on November 20, ahead of Existing Home Sales. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs take centre stage on November 21 along with the final U-Mich Consumer Sentiment index.

EUR/USD extended its positive performance on the weekly chart, advancing toward the 1.16509-1.1660 region, where some decent resistance seems to have turned up for now. The Current Account results in the euro bloc are due on November 19, seconded by the final Inflation Rate in the region and the preliminary Labour Cost Index. The Producer Prices in Germany will be released on November 20, followed by the EMU’s Construction Output and the advanced Consumer Confidence gauge. On November 21 will come the advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the euro area, while the ECB will publish its Negotiated Wage Growth figures.

Despite the continuation of the choppy trade, GBP/USD managed to keep its constructive tone for the second straight week, up nearly two cents since recent lows near the key 1.3000 threshold. The Inflation Rate will take centre stage on November 19, ahead of the CBI Industrial Trends Orders on November 20. The GfK Consumer Confidence comes on November 21, prior to Retail Sales and flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

USD/JPY resumed its uptrend this week, setting aside the previous decline and reclaiming the area beyond the 155.00 mark for the first time since February. The preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate is due on November 17 alongside the final prints of Industrial Production and Capcity Utilisation. The Balance of Trade results are due on November 19 followed by Machinery Orders. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will come out on November 20, while the Inflation Rate will wrap up the docket along with the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on November 21.

AUD/USD kept its erratic behaviour well in place, reversing the previous weekly pullback and advancing markedly in the last five days, while retaking the 0.6500 barrier and beyond at the same time. The RBA will release its Minutes on November 18, while the Westpac Leading Index and quarterly Wage Price Index data are expected on November 19. The advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the salient release in Oz on November 21.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The BoE’s Mann speaks on November 17, followed by the Fed’s Williams, Jefferson, Waller and Kashkari, and the ECB’s De Guindos, Lane and Cipollone.
• The ECB’s Machado, Tuominen, Buch and Elderson will all speak on November 18, ahead of the BoE’s Dhingra.
• The Fed’s Williams will speak on November 19, alongside the ECB’s Buch.
• The BoJ’s Koeda is due to speak on November 20, followed by the RBA’s Connolly and Hunter and the Fed’s Hammack, Cook and Goolsbee.
• The ECB’s Lagarde, De Guindos and Machado speak on November 21, seconded by the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Jefferson and Logan.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings/releases to shape monetary policies

• The RBA will publish its Minutes on November 18, ahead of the MNB meeting on November 18 (6.50% act vs. 6.50% exp).
• The BI will meet on November 19 (4.75% act vs. 4.75% exp) alongside the publication of the Fed Minutes.
• The PboC meets on November 20 (3.00%/3.50% act vs. 3.00%-3.50% exp), followed by the SARB (7.00% act vs. 7.00% exp), and the release of Banxico Minutes.