Forecasting the upcoming week: Attention returns to US inflation data and the Fed

The US Dollar (USD) notched another positive week, buoyed by fading concerns over the US-China trade dispute ahead of Saturday’s high-level gathering. With the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting still in the rearview, investor attention now turns to upcoming US inflation figures, which could prove pivotal in shaping the next leg of the policy outlook.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended Friday on the back foot but still marked its third consecutive weekly gain, climbing past the key 100.00 level. The advance was supported by easing concerns around US-China trade tensions ahead of the weekend’s high-level meetings. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is packed. On May 13, markets will focus on the NFIB Business Optimism Index, followed by the Inflation Rate and the API’s weekly report on US crude inventories. The MBA Mortgage Applications release is scheduled for May 14, along with the EIA’s update on oil stockpiles. May 15 brings a flurry of key data including Retail Sales, Producer Prices, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and the latest Initial Jobless Claims. On May 16, Building Permits and Housing Starts are due, alongside Import and Export Prices, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, and Net TIC Flows.

EUR/USD snapped a three-week losing streak but remained near multi-week lows just below the 1.1200 support zone. On May 13, attention turns to the ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys in Germany and the euro area. Germany’s final Inflation Rate is due on May 14, while German Wholesale Prices are scheduled for May 15, alongside the eurozone’s Employment Change and the second estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate.

GBP/USD outperformed most risk-sensitive peers, closing the week slightly above the 1.3300 mark. Key UK data includes the BRC Retail Sales Monitor and labour market figures on May 13. The preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate will be released on May 15, followed by Business Investment, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and Labour Productivity.

USD/JPY lost some intraday momentum on Friday but maintained its bullish trajectory for a third consecutive week, rising beyond the 146.00 threshold. Japan’s Current Account data is due on May 12, followed by Bank Lending and the Eco Watchers Survey. The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions will be published on May 13, with Producer Prices on May 14. Foreign Bond Investment and Machine Tool Orders are due on May 15, ahead of the flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate and Industrial Production on May 16.

AUD/USD experienced a volatile week, breaching 0.6500 before pulling back and settling just above 0.6400. Australian data on May 13 includes the Westpac Consumer Confidence survey, NAB Business Confidence, Building Permits, and Private House Approvals. May 14 will bring Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, and the Wage Price Index. Labour market figures are due on May 15, followed by Consumer Inflation Expectations.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The Fed’s Kugler will speak on May 12, along with the BoE’s Greene and Pill, and the ECB’s Buch.

- The BoE’s Benford speaks on May 13.

- The Fed’s Waller, Daly and Jefferson speak on May 14, seconded by the ECB’s Cipollone, and the BoE’s Benjamin.

- The ECB’s Cipollone, De Guindos and Elderson are due to speak on May 15, seconded by the Fed’s Powell and Barr, and the BoE’s Dhingra.

- The BoJ’s Nakamura will speak on May 16, seconded by the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The Banxico will decide on rates on May 15 (9.00% act., 8.50% exp.)