Peter A Rosenstreich
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The collapse of risk appetite continued today with selling across the board. Global equity indices, crude, USD and bond yields are all weaker. The Shanghai composite fell 5.22% and the Nikkei declined 3.89%. There is indiscriminate selling, rather than a traditional risk-off trade. Perhaps the clearest signal of a risk aversion trade is the decline of USD/JPY, which had recently reconnected with interest-rate differentials but now decoupled.
Expectations of higher US inflation is the likely cause. This, plus strong growth, will push the Fed interest rate path higher. The Fed Fund rate remains under-priced compared to “dots.” Repricing of the US yield curves has equity investors concerned that dot yields and stocks historically don’t move in tandem. Not helping is US President Trump’s statement blaming the Fed for the sell-off. "The Fed is making a mistake," Trump told media, after the markets posted their biggest pullback in more than seven months. "I think the Fed has fallen on its head." Markets are clear that an independent central bank is critical to overall market stability.
Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD could extend the recovery to 0.6500 and above
The enhanced risk appetite and the weakening of the Greenback enabled AUD/USD to build on the promising start to the week and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure ahead of key inflation figures in Australia.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
Gold struggles around $2,325 despite broad US Dollar’s weakness
Gold reversed its direction and rose to the $2,320 area, erasing a large portion of its daily losses in the process. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.6% following the weak US PMI data and supports XAU/USD.
Bitcoin price makes run for previous cycle highs as Morgan Stanley pushes BTC ETF exposure
Bitcoin (BTC) price strength continues to grow, three days after the fourth halving. Optimism continues to abound in the market as Bitcoiners envision a reclamation of previous cycle highs.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Federal Reserve might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.