US index futures may be sitting below the Asian session highs, but expectations are still that Wall Street will start the week in positive territory. There’s a lot of expectation over the messages that will be baked into the Federal Reserve’s policy statement which is due on Wednesday. Although the chances of a rate cut this week remain limited, the recent rebound in stocks has been supported by the idea that dovish action will be seen by the Fed in the July meeting. Failure to telegraph this has the potential to initiate another bout of selling, whilst also being likely to escalate criticism of the Fed’s monetary policy from the White House.
There’s little in the way of economic data due for release today which might provide further clues as to the Fed’s tone, although a significant shortfall in the Empire Manufacturing index print may be sufficient to increase confidence that a dovish trajectory will be taken. Speculation over side-talks at next week’s G20 meeting will also have the potential to shape sentiment. With Donald Trump now expected to be raising the protests in Hong Kong with his Chinese counterpart, the idea that any quick resolution to trade differences will be found is again being pushed back a little, too.
Ahead of the open, the market is calling the DOW up 51 at 26141 and the S&P up 6 at 2893
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