Events to Look Out For Next Week

Andria Pichidi HFM

Monday

German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. September numbers are expected to show a slight decline in business climate.

Tuesday

CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The CB Consumer Confidence is a monthly survey released by the Conference Board Inc. in the US. The particular survey is important as it reflects the consumer spending based on surveyed households. Consumer Confidence Forecasts suggests that level of a composite index will fall to 131.0 in September, from an 18-year high of 133.4 in August.

Wednesday

Fed’s Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – Event of the Week. The market consensus is for a quarter point hike in the Fed Funds target range to 2.00%-2.25%, along with little adjustment to the language in the statement, and a modestly upgraded economic outlook. The Fed funds rate forecasts in the SEP will likely reveal no change from the move up in the number of hikes in 2018. Meanwhile, in the press conference, the Fed is likely to cover as usual, the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. The press conference is important as it might give signs for the next move of the Fed. regarding the monetary policy.

Jerome H. Powell Speech (USD, GMT 18:00) – The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will deliver his views on the Fed’s monetary policy. As usual, more hawkish than expected is good for the currency.

RBNZ Rate Decision and Press Conference (NZD, 21:00 GMT) – RBNZ is not expected to make any changes on its monetary policy and hence policy rates expected to be held steady at 1.75%.

Thursday

German Prelim. CPI (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The price level in Germany is expected to be unchanged at the 1.9% level. Higher CPI usually suggests currency depreciation. The German preliminary CPI could be an indication of Euro Area CPI on Friday.

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country. US final quarterly GDP is expected to remain unchanged from the second reading of 4.2%, versus growth rates of 2.2% in Q1 and 2.3% in Q4.

Core Durable Goods Orders (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in US. August Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.7%, following a 1.7% decline in July.

Friday

Current Account and Final GDP (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -£18.00B bln in Q2 , from -£17.72B bln in Q1 reflecting weakness in exports in comparison to imports. Meanwhile, Q2 GDP growth is expected to be remain stable in Q2, at 1.3% YoY and 0.4% QoQ.

European CPI Flash (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European CPI for September is expected to remain stable, at 2.1%, with core CPI expected to remain at about 1.1%. A positive surprise could be bad for the currency.

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, a high reading is expected to be bullish for the USD. Expected PCE inflation to stand at 2% YoY similar to the previous month.

Canadian Q2 GDP results (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Gross Domestic Product for Canada is released on a monthly basis and is expected to grow by 0.2% since last month. Usually, higher than expected GDP numbers are positive for the currency.

Author

Andria Pichidi

HFM

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in

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