Eurozone Q1 GDP revised higher in final reading

Notes/Observations

- German Apr industrial production misses expectations amid continuing semiconductor shortages; the auto sector likely holds back the recovery.

- German Jun ZEW Survey mixed but remained optimistic of a strong economic recovery in the next six months.

- Euro Zone Final Q1 GDP data revised higher.

Asia:

- Japan Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -1.0% v -1.2%e; GDP Annualized Q/Q: -3.9% v -5.0%e.

- China bond market selloff fears grow as liquidity tightens.

- China PBOC has been adopting a 'prudent stance' on liquidity injections since Mar 2021 (Insight: The amount of cash in China’s banking system has been falling, local govt debt sales are due to double this week and as a result, the o/n interbank rate recently rose to its highest level since Feb).

Europe:

- EU said to table concessions aimed at avoiding confrontation over Northern Ireland Protocol on Tuesday (Jun 8th). EU to warn the UK govt that EU patience was wearing thin over the UK’s confrontational attitude.

- Easing lockdown restrictions In Britain could be delayed by 2 weeks with ministers pessimistic after a downbeat briefing from the govt’s chief medical officers.

Americas:

- Sen Capito (R-WV) stated that had no further plans for Republicans to counteroffer on infrastructure as the party had offered a robust package.

- US Senate appeared to be poised to pass the most expansive industrial policy legislation in US history spurred by the competitive threat from China.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 % at #, FTSE % at #, DAX % at #, CAC-40 % at #, IBEX-35 % at #, FTSE MIB % at #, SMI % at #, S&P 500 Futures %].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open broadly flat and failed to gain direction as they traded mixed later in the session; better-performing sectors include telecom and utilities; underperforming sectors include industrials and financials; Cevian raised stake in Aviva; Italian press initially reported that A2A was looking to create maxi JV for energy, but the company denied the reports; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Navistar.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Halfords HFD.UK +1.5% (analyst action), British American Tobacco BATS.UK +1.3% (results).

- Energy: President Energy PPC.UK +11.6% (Paraguay farm-out agreement).

- Financials: Aviva AV.UK +3.5% (Cevian raises stake), Intermediate Capital ICP.UK +4.6% (results).

- Industrials: Gea Group G1A.DE -3.2% (analyst action).

Speakers

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Business Survey noted that companies felt the risk of the pandemic was decreasing. Troubles on the supply side with component shortages causing. delays and increased costs

- German ZEW Economists commented that financial market experts expected strong economic recovery in the next six months.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD steady in session with a focus on Wed US CPI data. Dealers noted that expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than it has indicated seemed unlikely.

- EUR/USD steady at 1.2170. The focus remained on Thursday's ECB policy meeting. Dealers noted that policymakers could point to Fed when keeping the ultra-loose policy in place using the regional economy as still lagging behind coupled with vaccination goal being some months away.

- GBP faces some headwinds as the planned Jun 21st reopening of the UK economy could be delayed a few weeks. GBP/USD at 1.4145 by mid-session.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden Apr Maklarstatistik Housing Prices Y/Y: 20%v 19% prior; Apartment Prices Y/Y: 13% v 10% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.7% prior.

- (DE) Germany Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 26.4% v 29.5%e.

- (DK) Denmark Apr Industrial Production M/M: -3.6% v +5.0% prior.

- (RO) Romania Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 2.8% v 2.8%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e.

- (FR) France Apr Trade Balance: -€6.2B v -€5.4Be; Current Account Balance: -€1.4B v v -€2.7B prior.

- (ES) Spain Q1 INE House Price Index Q/Q: +0.5% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.5% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 21.0% v 25.2%e; Retail Sales (ex-auto) Y/Y: 7.5% v 10.4%e.

- (HU) Hungary Apr Industrial Production M/M: -3.2% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 59.2% v 68.9%e.

- (MY) Malaysia End-May Foreign Reserves: $110.9B v $110.6B prior mid-month reading.

- (SE) Sweden Apr GDP Indicator M/M: -1.4% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 3.5% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Private Sector Production M/M: -0.2%v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.7% v 3.6% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 30.5% v 10.9% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Industry Production Value Y/Y: 26.4% v 5.6% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: 9.2% v 4.5% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Household Consumption M/M: -5.1% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.5% v 5.4% prior.

- (IT) Italy Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 30.4% v 23.5% prior.

- (NO) Norway May Region Output Survey (past 3-months): +0.44 v -0.16 prior; Output Survey (next 6-months): 1.88 v 0.92 prior.

- (CZ) Czech May International Reserves: $169.1B v $167.5B prior.

- (TW) Taiwan May CPI Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4%e; WPI Y/Y: 11.3% v 10.4%e.

- (TW) Taiwan May Trade Balance: $6.2B v $6.4Be; Exports Y/Y: 38.6% v 30.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 40.9% v 29.8%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.8%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Household Consumption Q/Q: -2.3% v -2.3%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: 0.2% v 1.0%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Final Employment Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3% prelim; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.1% prelim.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jun ZEW Expectations Survey: 81.3 v 84.0 prior.

- (DE) Germany Jun Current Situation Survey: -9.1 v -27.5e; Expectations Survey: 79.8 v 86.0e.

- (HU) Hungary May YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -1.313T v -1.044T prior.

Fixed income Issuance

- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR34.0T vs. IDR30.0T target in bills and bonds.

- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €2.2B in 0% July 2031 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: -0.053% v -0.027% prior.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.16B vs. €5.5-6.5B in 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total €1.38B vs. €1.38B indicated in 2025 and 2031 RAGB Bonds.

- (UK) DMO sold £3.0B in 0.375% Oct 2026 Gilts; Avg Yield: 0.465% v 0.457% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.69x v 2.57x prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.2bps prior.

Looking Ahead

- (IT) Bank of Italy Balance-Sheet Aggregates.

- 05:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:20 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q1 GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.2%e v 6.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.0%e v -4.1% prior.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 0.25% Nov 2028 Bunds.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3-month and 12-month bills.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell total ZAR3.9B in 2031, 2032, and 2037 bonds.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) at fixed 0.00%.

- 06:00 (US) May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: 100.9e v 99.8 prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior.

- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell €1.0-2.0B in 6-month and 9-month bills.

- 06:30 (UK) DMO to sell £1.25B in 1.625% Oct 2071 Gilts.

- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.1B in 12-Month Bills.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell bonds.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 3.7%e v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 36.9%e v 33.5% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile May CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.3% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.3%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 18.4%e v 2.4% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Broad Retail Sales M/M: +2.1%e v -5.3% prior; Y/Y: 37.0%e v 10.1% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Apr Trade Balance: -$68.7Be v -$74.4B prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): -0.7Be v -1.1B prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 (UK) BOE’s Haldane (dissenter on QE, the chief economist).

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil May Vehicle Production: No est v 190.9K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 175.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 33.9K prior.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-20 years).

- 10:00 (US) Apr JOLTS Job Openings: 8.20Met v 8.123M prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserve data.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-year Notes.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 32.8% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 97.6% prior.

- (CO) Colombia May Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -34.2 prior.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.

- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand May Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v -1.2% prior.

- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 0.50%.

- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Activity Q/Q: No est v -0.6% prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.6%e v 1.6% prelim; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prelim.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea May Unemployment Rate: 3.6%e v 3.7% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan May M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.45e v 9.2% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0%e v 7.8% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Jun Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 113.1 prior.

- 21:00 New Zealand Jun Preliminary Business Confidence: No est v 7.0 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v 32.3 prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Apr Trade Balance: -$2.4Be v -$2.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: 90.4%e v 31.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: 146.9%e v 16.6% prior.

- 21:30 (CN) China May CPI Y/Y: 1.6%e v 0.9% prior; PPI Y/Y: 8.5%e v 6.8% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Apr Home Loans Value M/M: No est v 5.5% prior.

- 23:00 (CN) China to sell 2-year and 5-year upsized Bonds.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills.