Eurozone market update

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

The euro is consolidating around new levels relative to the US dollar.

The common currency remains solidly above the $1.11 level, but the resilience to tariff trouble apparent in US economic data and Trump's retreat on tariffs are preventing a breakout to higher levels for now, and it is unlikely that the news of Moody's downgrade of the US rating will be enough to bring that about in the near term.

In addition to the business activity PMIs for May, which will be released on Thursday, the minutes for the last European Central Bank meeting will be out on the same day.

We will also be keeping tabs on speeches from a number of Governing Council members in the coming days, including Cipollone, Lane and Schnabel.

Market bets in favour of Euro Area rate cuts have receded since the news of the US-China trade deal, and it will be interesting to see whether easing growth fears are reflected in a slightly less dovish ECB.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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