European FX Outlook: Markets seen digesting the NFP report on data light Monday

Mario Blascak, PhD Independent Analyst

What you need to know before markets open

The end of tentative democracy in a communist regime in China that removed presidential term limits possibly opening way the way for another wave of the cult of personality with Xi Jinping staying at the helm of China for a lifetime.
The US labor market saw exceptionally strong payroll increase with 313K new jobs added in February, but the key wage growth lags behind the expectations.
"No deal" Brexit could cost the UK and the EU companies up to £58 billion-report from management consultants and law firm Clifford Chance says.
No major macroeconomic data are scheduled for Monday while international tensions over the US trade tariffs introduction rise with countries like Germany and China expecting deterioration in global growth and trade.

Monday’s market moving events

China’s Foreign Direct Investment is due.
Greek industrial production is set to rise 0.2% m/m in January.
Portuguese CPI is expected to rise 1.0% y/y in February.
The US monthly budget statement is set to reveal a deficit of $-222.6 billion in February.
NZ Food price index is expected to rise 1.2% m/m in February.

Major market movers

Major currencies start the week little changed against the US Dollar that has seen a negative reaction to very strong NFP reading with lower than expected wage growth.
The sentiment is set to drive the market with o major macro data scheduled for Monday.

Friday’s macro summary

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged in March meeting with 8-1 voting pattern as Mr. Takaoka traditionally dissented current policy statement wording.
German industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in January.
German trade balance reached a surplus of €21.3 billion in January with exports rising 8.3% y/y while imports rose 6.7% y/y.
French manufacturing output fell 2.0% m/m in January.
The UK manufacturing output rose 0.1% m/m in January, but the industrial production rose 1.3% m/m as mining and querying headlined due to the re-opening of the Forties oil pipeline after reparation.
The US NFP rose 313K in February while the unemployment rate remained stuck to 4.1%.
The US wage growth though disappointed rising 2.6% y/y in February.
Canada’s labor market improved with 15.4K new jobs added in February and the unemployment rate dropping to 5.8%.

Author

Mario Blascak, PhD

Independent Analyst

Dr. Mário Blaščák worked in professional finance and banking for 15 years before moving to journalism. While working for Austrian and German banks, he specialized in covering markets and macroeconomics.

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