Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
We have seen the euro under pressure in recent sessions. A marginal intraday breach of the three and a half month uptrend was seen yesterday only to hold the trend into the close. However, we have been seeing the old $1.1100 pivot becoming a basis of resistance in recent days and once more seems to be acting as a ceiling. Pressure is subsequently resuming on the medium term uptrend. What is of bigger concern for the technical outlook would be the support at $1.1065. This is the first key higher low of the three month recovery and if it were to be breached on a closing basis it would mark a significant change in outlook. The growing three week downtrend of lower highs and lower lows is becoming increasingly prominent and would become the dominant trend if $1.1065 were to be broken. We still see momentum indicators just hanging on by their fingertips, with the RSI still hovering 40/45 and MACD lines falling back to neutral. A breach of $1.1065 would come with a momentum breakdown and open the old key lows around $1.0980/$1.1000. Resistance above $1.1120 needs to be broken to at least think about a rally, with the three week downtrend at $1.1145 today.
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