|

EUR/USD: unstoppable Pound's slide driving markets

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0979

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

The dollar opened the week with a  strong note, advancing against most of its rivals, but the Japanese yen, as demand for safe-haven assets persists, following Brexit's chaos triggered late Thursday.  The macroeconomic calendar is quite scarce in Europe, as the region only released some minor figures on monetary developments, which were modestly positive. In the US, and ahead of Wall Street's opening, the Goods Trade Balance for May showed a deficit of 60.6 billion, worse-than-expected, and previous, but the dollar has hardly retreated afterwards.

Still pending are US June's Flash Markit Services and Composite PMIs are going to be released after the opening and a speech from ECB's head, Mario Draghi.

The EUR/USD pair trades near its daily low, set at  1.0971, and with a strong bearish tone in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is well below a bearish 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators have resumed their slides near oversold levels. The 20 SMA is now around 1.1047, providing a strong resistance in the case of a recovery. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators present a strong downward momentum near oversold levels, whilst the 20 SMA has extended its decline below the 100 and 200 SMAs, far above the current price. The pair has scope to extend is decline on a break below 1.0960, with market now eyeing the strong static support area between 1.0800 and 1.0840.

Support levels: 1.0960 1.0920 1.0885

Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1045 1.1080  

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3182

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

The British Pound keeps falling strongly this Monday, having gapped sharply lower at the weekly opening against most of its major rivals, as Brexit jitters keep hitting the UK. Nearly half of the shadow cabinet has so far resigned, 10-year government bond yields sank below 1% for the first time ever, while social disarray, including some racist attacks over the weekend, reflects the levels of uncertainty over the UK future among locals. 

The GBP/USD pair fell down to  1.3150, a fresh over 30-year low, temporally paring losses amid being overstretched towards the downside, but by no means aiming to change course. The 1 hour chart, shows that the price keeps developing below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, which caught up with price action early Sunday, and stands now around 1.3400, whilst the RSI indicator is flat within oversold territory and the Momentum indicator heads south below its mid-line, all of which favors further declines. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators are heading strongly lower within extreme oversold territory, also maintaining the risk towards the downside and with no aims of changing bias any time soon.

Support levels: 1.3150 1.3110 1.3070

Resistance levels: 1.3225 1.3260 1.3300

USD/JPY Current price: 101.61

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The Japanese yen remains strong against all of its major rivals, having ignored some early market rumors suggesting the local government is ready to add another  ¥10 trillion stimulus package sometime this year. The news helped the Nikkei, as the benchmark recovered some of its latest losses, up roughly 2.40% this Monday, but the yen remains quite vulnerable to risk sentiment.  The USD/JPY pair trades at the lower end of its daily range ahead of the US opening, with the overall negative tone present in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the pair is currently developing below the 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators present a strong downward momentum near oversold readings, whilst the 100 SMA supports a continued decline, heading sharply lower well above the current level. 

Support levels: 101.40 101.00 100.75

Resistance levels: 101.95 102.30 102.80

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7393

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The Aussie starts the week under pressure, struggling to hold above 0.7400 against the greenback, and also gapping south at the weekly opening, lead by broad's dollar demand. The pair has remained contained below the 38.2% retracement of this year's rally at 0.7450 earlier in the day, and heads into the US opening with a downward tone in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the price develops below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower after failing to overcome their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical readings present a strong downward momentum, whilst the price is struggling around a horizontal 200 EMA, indicating an increasing bearish potential that can drive the pair down to Friday's low around 0.7303. 

Support levels: 0.7365 0.7330 0.7300

Resistance levels: 0.7410 0.7450 10.7490

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report. 

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1. 

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year. 

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.