EUR/USD Price Forecast: US employment data takes centre stage

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1636

• Financial markets extend the wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve.
• The US will release the JOLTS Job Openings report for September and October.
• EUR/USD remains lifeless above 1.1600, risk skews to the downside in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair remains stuck around 1.1630 for a third consecutive day, unable to attract speculative interest. Financial markets are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, with cautious traders maintaining major pairs confined to familiar levels, and providing near-term support to the US Dollar (USD).

Meanwhile, a scarce European macroeconomic calendar keeps speculative interest away from the Euro (EUR). Germany reported that the October Trade Balance posted a surplus of €16.9 billion, improving from the €15.3 billion posted in September. Exports outpaced imports, with the latter declining by 1.2% in the month.

Across the pond, the United States (US) released the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which showed that, for the four weeks ending November 22, US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week. The news had no impact ahead of the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS will report September and October data.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture is bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair is stuck around 1.1630, and the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has turned lower at 1.1649, providing dynamic resistance. The 100- and 200-period SMAs drift higher at 1.1594 and 1.1586, respectively, underpinning the broader bias as the pair holds above them. At the same time, the Momentum indicator slips below 0 and extends lower, indicating building bearish pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, neutral-to-bearish. A recovery through the 20-period SMA at 1.1649 could encourage buyers.

In the daily chart, the 20-day SMA has turned higher while remaining below a declining 100-day SMA, with price holding above the former but capped by the latter. The 200-day SMA trends upward well below spot, preserving a supportive medium-term backdrop. As per technical indicators, the momentum advances above its midline, while the RSI sits near 56, in line with the dominant yet dormant bullish trend. Immediate support stands at the 20-day SMA at 1.1596, while initial resistance is the 100-day SMA at 1.1644; a daily close above it could improve the upside tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)