JOLTS Job Openings to provide fresh labor-market signals ahead of Fed decision
- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely after over two months of silence.
- Job Openings are forecast to remain around 7.2 million in October.
- United States employment-related data is critical for the Federal Reserve.
- EUR/USD is neutral-to-bullish, needs to run past 1.1730 to gain additional upward traction.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Due to the long-lasting government shutdown, the publication will provide data on changes in the number of Job Openings in September and October, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
Ahead of the announcement, market participants anticipate that Job Openings reached 7.2 million in October. The last report released showed 7.227 million job openings in August. The report will be released 24 hours before the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy announcement and is likely to have a limited impact on policymakers’ decision this time. However, more US employment-related data will be coming in the days ahead, and will likely shape bets on what the Fed may or may not do throughout 2026.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Fed officials because it can provide valuable insights into labor-market supply and demand dynamics, a key factor affecting salaries and inflation.
The labor market has been cooling down, maybe a bit too much. Fed policymakers now seem more worried about the labour situation than about inflation, which, anyway, is still above the central bank's target of around 2%.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
While the JOLTS Job Openings report offers clues about labor demand, it has a caveat: the report is a lagging indicator, as it is usually released one month later. In this case, due to the US government shutdown, the report is two months old, as it includes September and October data. As previously mentioned, it won’t have a direct impact on the Fed’s decision, but alongside other employment-related data, it will likely shape bets on what the Fed will do in 2026.
In the meantime, speculative interest has steadily increased bets on a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut. But beyond the rate decision, the central bank will also release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), a document that includes policymakers’ expectations for economic developments and the direction of monetary policy. The language of the monetary policy statement and the SEP could have a significant impact on financial markets.
At the time being, a too-weak labor market is the main reason for interest rate cuts. If employment-related data results are encouraging, investors could reduce bets on upcoming interest rate movements. The US Dollar is likely to firm up on solid local data, coupled with decreased odds for interest rate cuts. The opposite scenario is also valid: poor figures fuel speculation of lower rates, which, in turn, results in a weaker USD.
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job Openings will be published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, and ahead of the release, the EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips below the multi-week peak posted early in December at 1.1682.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish. The pair holds on to modest monthly gains and trades not far from its December peak, but the momentum remains missing as investors await clarification on US economic health and the Fed’s monetary policy path. The 1.1680 area provides resistance ahead of the October monthly peak at around 1.1730. A clear advance beyond the latter would revive the bullish trend, and could see the pair extending gains towards 1.1900 before the year-end.”
Bednarik adds: “The case for a firmer USD is limited. The Greenback could receive some near-term attention should the data results be upbeat, but such gains are unlikely to be sustained in time. Support comes at 1.1600, with losses below the level favoring a downward extension towards 1.1520. A line in the sand comes at around 1.1460, where buyers are likely to add longs.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Dec 10, 2025 19:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 4%
Source: Federal Reserve
Author
FXStreet Team
FXStreet
