EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sellers gain confidence ahead of US data releases

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1594

• The European Commission revised EU growth forecast for this year and next.
• The United States will start releasing delayed data this week.
• EUR/USD is under mild selling pressure in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1600 on Monday, little changed at the start of the new week. Market participants await fresh United States (US) data after the government reopened last week, aiming to assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver an interest rate cut when it meets in December. At the time of writing, the odds for such a move continue to decrease, currently at around 44% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds on to modest gains against most major rivals, with caution limiting price action.

Earlier in the day, the European Commission released the Economic Growth Forecasts report, which showed that growth exceeded expectations in the first nine months of the year, “ initially due to a surge in exports ahead of anticipated tariff increases, but investment in equipment and intangible assets also performed more strongly than expected.” The EU Commission upwardly revised its growth forecast for this year, from 0.9% to 1.3%, but cut down 2026 growth to 1.2% from the previous 1.4%.

Other than that, the macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer, with the focus on Fed speeches in the American session. Additionally, the US will release the New York State Manufacturing Index, forecasted in November at 6, following the 10.7 posted in October.

It is worth noting that the US will begin releasing delayed data, with the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) scheduled for release this Thursday. The figures will likely shape investors' expectations for a December Fed move, and hence, trigger some volatile price action.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1594, little changed on a daily basis. The technical picture is bearish, as the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-period SMA converge above the current level, providing resistance at around 1.1610. At the same time, the 100 SMA stays flat below the current level, now at 1.1577. Technical indicators, in the meantime, skew the risk to the downside, as the Momentum indicator slips below its midline and extends lower, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads south at 47.2, confirming waning buying interest.

In the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is also at risk of falling further. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes lower and sits just beneath the current price at 1.1582, while the 100-day SMA has turned marginally down to 1.1661, capping advances. The 200-day SMA edges higher at 1.1379, meaning the downside is limited in the broader picture. At the same time, technical indicators head lower within negative levels. A break below the 20-day SMA at 1.1582 would expose a steeper declien, while a daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1661 could improve the outlook and encourage follow-through.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)