EUR/USD Price Forecast: Markets remain on pause

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1683

• US ADP Employment Change survey showed the private sector added 41K new jobs in December.
• The United States macroeconomic calendar still has some interesting figures to offer.
• EUR/USD under modest selling pressure but confined to familiar levels.

The EUR/USD pair traded with a soft tone throughout the first part of Wednesday, though it remained stuck in a tight range around the 1.1700 level. Financial markets paused ahead of the release of relevant United States (US) data, maintaining a cautious optimism.

During London trading hours, the Eurozone released the preliminary estimate of the December Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which rose by 2% on a yearly basis, as expected. Inflation, as measured by the HICP, rose 0.2% month-on-month after decreasing 0.2% in November. The release had no impact on the Euro (EUR).

Across the pond, the US published the ADP Employment Change report, which showed that the private sector added 41K new jobs in the month, missing the expected 47K but much better than the previous -32K. The country is set to release October Factory Orders, the December ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and November JOLTS Job Openings.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is risk-skewed to the downside. The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trades below a bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which slopes lower below the 100 SMA, providing resistance at 1.1705 and 1.1743, respectively. At the same time, the pair is barely holding above a bullish 200 SMA at 1.1677. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator turned modestly lower at around its midline, while the

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades below the 20-day SMA at 1.1743 and above the 100-day SMA at 1.1667, with the SMAs containing price action. The 200-day SMA maintains its strong bullish slope far below the current price, preserving the mid-term bullish alignment. The Momentum indicator has turned negative and contracts below its neutral threshold, signaling fading upside strength, while the RSI stands flat at 44, in line with the overall negative tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)