EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gaining downward traction amid mounting risk aversion

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1717

US President Donald Trump’s back and forth with tariffs weigh on the market’s mood.
The US NFIB Fussiness Optimism Index eased to 98.6 in June from the previous 98.8.
EUR/USD at risk of falling towards 1.1630 according to near-term technical readings.

The EUR/USD pair retains a soft tone on Tuesday, trading a handful of pips above the 1.1700 mark, yet with limited bullish potential. The US Dollar (USD) eased throughout the first half of the day, following news that United States (US) President Donald Trump delayed, once again, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs.

After sending letters to multiple countries announcing fresh levies ranging between 25% and 40%, Trump extended the grace period until August 1, from the previous July 9. Even further, he signaled there could be more delays in order to negotiate trade deals. Wall Street closed in the red, and the USD came under selling pressure with the news, although no major level gave up.

The mood started souring during European trading hours, with local indexes feeling the heat and weighing on US futures. The USD recovered and aims higher in the near term, early in the American session.

Data-wise, there’s not much to take care of. There were no relevant news in Europe, while the US published the NFIB Fussiness Optimism Index for June, which eased to 98.6 from the previous 98.8. The country will later release the May Consumer Credit Change and weekly API oil data.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is holding on to modest intraday gains, yet down from its peak at 1.1767. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows the bullish case remains firm in place. EUR/USD develops far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around 1.1630. Technical indicators, in the meantime, grind marginally higher well into positive levels and after correcting overbought conditions.

The 4-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair keeps finding sellers at around a bearish 20 SMA, while developing far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their slides after failing to overcome their midlines. Another leg lower seems likely, as long as sellers keep rejecting advances at around 1.1770.

Support levels: 1.1685 1.1635 1.1590

Resistance levels: 1.1770 1.1800 1.1830

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.