EUR/USD Price Forecast: Depressed in range

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1667

• United States Consumer Price Index figures failed to impress market players.
• US President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs on countries trading with Iran.
• EUR/USD struggles for direction below 1.1700, key support at 1.1590.

The EUR/USD pair traded uneventfully throughout the first half of Tuesday, stuck around the 1.1660 price zone. Investors refrain from placing relevant bets ahead of the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI), while political noise in the US kept the Greenback on the back foot.

Adding to the latest geopolitical turmoil triggered by US President Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and Greenland, Trump decided to announce a fresh 2%% levy on those countries doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to his social media post, such tariffs will be effective immediately and apply to “any and all” business done with the USA.

Regarding US data, the annual inflation rate was reported at 2.7% by the CPI, while the monthly reading was 0.3%, matching expectations. The core annual CPI increased by 2.6% while the monthly advance was 0.2%, slightly below expectations but matching November’s readings. The release put some near-term pressure on the USD, but not enough to trigger fireworks, with major pairs holding on to familiar levels.

As the American session unwinds, the USD struggles to correct its corrective advance.

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is neutral, trading around a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) that eases below the 100- and 200-period SMAs, reflecting a bearish short-term tone. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned modestly positive above its midline, reflecting the latest uptick rather than hinting at additional gains ahead. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned modestly lower at around 48, limiting the bullish potential of the pair. Resistance comes at the 200 SMA at 1.1693 and at the 100 SMA at 1.1724.

In the daily chart, the risk for EUR/USD skews to the downside, as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes lower above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The longer one, however, remains far below the current level and aims north, limiting the bearish potential of EUR/USD. The Momentum indicator stays below 100 and edges higher, indicating selling pressure is losing steam, but falling short of supporting a leg higher. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sits at 44, suggesting limited directional conviction. All in all, the pair is set to continue consolidating in a tight range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)