EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers on pause, but holding the grip

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1908

Tepid US data maintains the US Dollar on the losing side.
US January Nonfarm Payrolls report will be out on Wednesday.
EUR/USD consolidates at the upper end of its weekly range.

The EUR/USD pair hovered around 1.1900 throughout the first half of Tuesday, unable to attract investors ahead of the release of United States (US) data. The Greenback enjoyed some near-term demand ahead of the release of Retail Sales data, but quickly changed course after the disappointing reading.

Retail Sales were flat on a monthly basis in December, below the 0.4% advance expected and the 0.6% gain in November. On a yearly basis, sales were up 2.4%, easing from the 3.3% posted in the previous month.

Earlier in the day, ADP reported that the US private sector expanded modestly, with companies adding an average of 6,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending January 24, according to the NER Pulse report.

Other than that, a cautious optimism prevails. Most global indexes trade with a positive bias, although gains around Wall Street remain modest. The focus now shifts to the January US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Wednesday after the brief US government partial shutdown.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trades near a weekly high of 1.1926, and the technical stance is overall bullish. The pair stands above all its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) advancing above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and providing support at 1.1845. At the same time, the Momentum indicator stays positive but has flattened, signaling steady rather than accelerating upside. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands at 66, ticking modestly higher, not enough to support another leg north.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD´s bullish potential is firmer. The pair trades well above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day SMA the nearest at approximately 1.1800, and the next, the 100-day SMA, well below it at 1.1680. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain well above their mid-lines, skewing the risk to the upside, but lacking clear directional strength, in line with the latest consolidative stage.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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