EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears maintain the pressure, 1.180 resists

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1833

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde may leave before the end of her term.
• United States Durable Goods Orders declined by less than anticipated in December.
• EUR/USD maintains a modest bearish bias in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair consolidates near 1.1805, its weekly low in the European session on Thursday, with the absence of relevant headlines keeping major pairs within limited intraday ranges.

Meanwhile, headlines indicate that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde plans to leave earlier than October 2027, when her term ends. According to different sources, fears that the far right may win the French presidential election in the spring of 2027 is the main reason behind the idea, which favors a better election of the ECB President’s successor through current French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron.

The European macroeconomic calendar had nothing relevant to offer, but the United States (US) released some interesting figures. Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.4% MoM in December, better than the 2% decline anticipated but below the 5.4% gain from November. The country also released December Housing Starts, up 6.2% in the month, and Building Permits, which rose 4.3%.

The encouraging figures did little for the USD, which showed no reaction to the headlines, but maintained stock markets on the positive side.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically speaking, the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair met intraday sellers around a bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which declines beneath the flattening 100-period SMA. The 20 SMA at 1.1848 and the 100 SMA at 1870 provide resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA has lost upward momentum and currently stands at 1.1779, potentially serving as a bearish target. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain below their midlines, but lack clear directional strength.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD remains below a still bullish 20-day SMA at 1.1861, which caps advances. The longer moving averages remain far below the current level, maintaining the long-term bullish trend alive. Finally, the Momentum indicator heads lower yet above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator accelerates its slide and currently stands at 51. The setup suggests mounting selling pressure without confirming additional declines ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)