Aussie jobs and AU earnings sees record ASX high Kospi outperforms in catch up post holiday

Asia Market Update: Aussie jobs & AU earnings sees record ASX high; Kospi outperforms in catch up post holiday; BOJ rate probs drop further as JP Machine orders show massive growth.

General trend and developments

-Australia jobs in January inline with the expected rise in employment, and unemployment ticking down a fraction. ASX index initially trimmed its gains after the jobs numbers but soon hit a record high, +1.2% to 9,118.

-However, ASX sector divergence amid earnings [REITs and Consumer Discretionary down; Telecom up on Telstra earnings].

-Kospi +2.8% post-holiday.

-Chip-relateds Samsung and Advantest share prices head opposite ways as Samsung hit fresh records as the company said to raise prices on its new HBM4 chips by as much as 30%, while Advantest fell up to 5% as it reported a hack of its systems that may impact financial performance.

-Indonesian assets in focus (IDR late Jan lows; S&P on IDR post-MSCI; bad foreign debt data on Wed; but today saw $38.4B trade deals with various US companies in energy, chips, agriculture.

- BOJ rate probs to drop further post-CPI on Fri? [Japan Jan Tokyo CPI was below 2.0% first time since 2024); Chances of a BOJ March hike now down to 13% with June chances steady at 93.5%.

-Japan Core Machine Orders growth saw a massive 19% increase m/m and 17% y/y. Will be sustainable?

-Japan 20-year auction was reasonably well supported, with a better tail but the lowest bid-to-cover in 9 months (but still >3x). Japan yield curve overall flattening again with the long-end down 2-3bps.

-Japan’s weekly data flows showed foreigners bought ¥1.4T of Japanese equities last week.

-Pres Trump to deliver remarks on the economy at 4pm ET (Thursday).

-Bill Gates skips AI Summit in India amid Epstein cloud as his Foundation issued a statement.

-US equity FUTs flat during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Thu Feb 19th AU Jan Jobs, JP Dec Machine Orders, PH BNP Rate Decision, ID Rate Decision, (Thu night CA Dec Balance of Trade, US Dec Balance of Trade).

-Fri Feb 20th NZ Trade Balance, JP Jan CPI, S&P Global PMIs day, UK Jan Retail Sales, (Fri night US Q4 Adv GDP, US Dec Core PCE).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon 16th China, (Hong Kong open for morning trading only), Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam.

-Tue 17th China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam.

-Wed 18th China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam.

-Thu 19th China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam.

-Fri 20th China, Taiwan, Vietnam.

[** Note: China markets reopen from Tue, Feb 24th).

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-ASX 200 opens +0.9% at 9,087.

-AUSTRALIA JAN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 17.8K V +20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.1% V 4.2%E.

-Australia ASX 200 +1.2% to hit record high at 9,118.

-Former RBA Gov Philip Lowe criticizes Labour’s inaction on boosting the economy – Local press.

-Policy think tank "e61 Institute" says Australia's fiscal spending "unsustainable" - policy paper.

-RBNZ Assist Gov Silk: Central scenario is the easing cycle is over, risks on either side - follow up comments following yesterday's RBNZ decision to hold rates.

China/Hong Kong

-Hang Seng closed for holiday; Shanghai Composite closed for holiday.

-China Jan Swift Global Payments (CNY): 3.1% v 2.7% prior.

-Follow Up: Texas has sued TP Link Systems, cites allegations related to allowing China government access to the consumer devices of Americans – financial press [overnight update].

-(RU) Russia Kremlin Daily Briefing: China did NOT carry out secret nuclear weapon test and denied US accusations [overnight update].

Japan

-Nikkei 225 opens +0.6% at 57,472.

- Japan Dec Core Machine Orders M/M: 19.1% v 5.0%e; Y/Y: 16.8% v 3.9%e.

-JAPAN SELLS ¥800B VS. ¥800B IN 20-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 2.9680% V 3.2530% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 3.08X V 3.19X PRIOR [lowest bid-to-cover since May 2025].

-Japan releases weekly flows data [period ended Feb 13th]: Foreign buying of Japan equities: +¥1.4T v ¥543.2B.

-Japan PM Takaichi: Aim to pass FY26 budget as swift as possible; To mull tax cut with refundable tax credit system;

-Japan sells ¥3.3T vs. ¥3.3Tindicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.0411% v 0.9693% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.82x v 3.60x prior.

- Will not comment on market moves include FX, but government monitors moves closely; Seeks market trust through sustainable fiscal policy [overnight update].

-Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Confirms all Takaichi's cabinet ministers reappointed [overnight update].

Korea

-Kospi opens +2.5% at 5,642 [follows extended holiday].

-005930.KR Shares hits fresh record high on reported 30% AI chip price hike.

-South Korea Unification Min: To seek restoration of Sept 19th military agreement with North Korea [overnight update].

Other Asia

-(MY) Malaysia Jan CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e.

-(ID) Indonesia and US companies sign trade and investment agreements related to critical minerals, chips, agriculture and forestry; companies mentioned included Pertamina and Halliburton - financial press.

-(IN) India reportedly imported 1.1M bpd of Russian oil in January, lowest since Nove 2022 - press citing data sources.

-(IN) Gates Foundation: Bill Gates will not deliver keynote address at the AI summit in Delhi [India].

North America

-(US) Rep Khanna to force Iran war powers vote in the House; the vote will likely be scheduled during next week - Punchbowl
(US) President Trump: THE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES. IT WILL GO INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY DURING THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DECADES. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
*(US) DEC TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $44.9B V $212.0B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $28.0B V $220.2B PRIOR.

- (US) Reportedly Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than most Americans realize; US military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela - Axios.

- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 13th: +2.8% v -0.3% prior (1st rise in 4 weeks).

- (US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: Consumers have been made better off by Trump's tariffs - CNBC.

- (US) DEC PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.4% V -2.0%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.9% V 0.3%E; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.6% v 0.3%e.

- (US) JAN HOUSING STARTS: 1.404M V 1.304ME (highest since July); BUILDING PERMITS: 1.448M V 1.400ME.

- (US) Feb New York Fed Services Business Activity: -25.7 v -16.1 prior.

- (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales w/e Feb 14th: +7.2% y/y; Feb MTD: +6.8% y/y.

- (US) JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.7% V 0.4%E.

-(US) TREASURY $16B 20-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 4.664% V 4.706% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER 2.36 V 2.41 PRIOR.

-(US) Fed's Bowman (voter, dove): Latest jobs report a bit strange; Most other indicators do not show as strong a labor market.

-(US) White House Press Sec Leavitt: Diplomacy is Trump's first option concerning Iran; There was a little progress made in talks; Still expect Iranians to come back with more detailed proposals in a couple of weeks; Trump has a decision to make.

-(US) Pres Trump: If Iran decides not to make a deal, it may be necessary for the US to use military base at Diego Garcia for operations - Truth Social.

-(US) JAN FOMC MINUTES: SEVERAL SAW MORE CUTS IF INFLATION DECLINES AS EXPECTED; MAJORITY JUDGED LABOR MARKETS SHOWED SIGNS OF STABILIZATION; SEVERAL SUPPORTED TWO SIDED DESCRIPTION ON FUTURE RATE MOVES.

Europe

- (HU) Hungary PM Orban: To release crude oil from strategic reserves.

- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Bunge: Recent cyclical indicators have been mixed.

-ADP.FR Y25 Rev €6.70B v €6.7Be; Adj EBITDA €2.32B v €2.24Be.

-ORA.FR Q4 EBITDAaL €3.36B v €3.25B y/y, Rev €10.6B v €10.4B y/y.

-(EU) ECB's Schnabel (Germany): Euro increasingly acts as a haven.

-(IT) Italy PM Meloni: Confirms raises IRAP corporate tax impacting energy firms by 2 ppt.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.8%; ASX 200 +0.9%; Hang Seng closed; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi +2.8%;

Equity S&P500 Futures flat; Nasdaq100 flat; DAX -0.3%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

Gold +0.2% at $4,987/oz; BTC -1.4% at $66,772, Crude Oil +0.4% at $65.27/bbl; Copper flat at $5.7753/lb.