EUR/USD Forecast: With many boosters, overbought conditions may be only a temporary speed bump


  • EUR/USD has been extending its gains to above 1.12 amid opening optimism and stimulus hopes. 
  • Speculation about the ECB and top-tier US figures are eyed.
  • Thursday's four-hour chart is pointing to overbought conditions. 

Is the only way up? Perhaps, yet the rapid pace of gains suggests a temporary correction may be on the cards.

One potential trigger for such a correction may come from fraught talks between Germany's coalition partners. Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right CDU party has so far failed to agree on the details of a €100 billion stimulus package with her center-left SPD. If another meeting – perhaps shorter than the nine-hour previous one – is also inconclusive – the common currency could fall. However, previous prolonged negotiations eventually ended in an agreement. 

On the other hand, investors are growingly bullish on stimulus from the European Central Bank. The Frankfurt-based institution is forecast to expand its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) which currently stands at €750 billion. Estimates from an additional €250 billion to €500 billion. 

See ECB Preview: Lagarde's lavishness to set the tone for EUR/USD, three scenarios and what to watch

Printing more money tended to weaken the underlying currency, but that is not the case in the coronavirus era – additional funds mean a quicker economic recovery, especially for the hardest-hit countries such as Italy and Spain.

And in both these large southern nations, disease-related developments have been encouraging. Rome is set to further remove restrictions, including the obligation for incoming visitors to quarantine. Spain reported two consecutive days without COVID-19 mortalities, albeit amid discrepancies between central and regional authorities.

Germany's Reproduction indicator dropped below 1 after temporarily moving above this level and cafes in Paris are reopening. Overall, coronavirus seems to be coming under control, supporting the common currency. 

Markit's final Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for May will likely confirm the dire, yet improving conditions. Investors are already eyeing June's figure.

US unrest to result in more stimulus?

Protests against racial discrimination continued for another day in America, yet with a calmer tone. While demonstrators violated curfews in several cases, the marches were mostly peaceful, and also President Donald Trump toned down his rhetoric, retreating from threats to bring in the military. 

The unrest has pushed lawmakers on Capitol Hill to accelerate talks for another relief package – probably below $3 trillion that Democrats pushed for, but potentially above the $1 trillion mark. 

The mass gatherings in demonstrations and other reopenings that have come amid political pressure and without substantial falls in cases suggest the US is still at risk of experiencing a second wave. However, that may take time to materialize and investors remain optimistic about the return to normal. 

Hope and the Federal Reserve's stimulus are boosting stocks and weighing on the safe-haven dollar. 

Is the world's largest economy recovering? Two significant releases await investors. ADP's private-sector jobs report is forecast to show a loss of nine million jobs in May – a horrible outcome, but an improvement in comparison to April.

ADP Preview: Half as bad as April is still terrible but markets have moved on

Later on, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also carries expectations for improvement, yet it will likely remain below 50 – representing concentration. The employment component serves as a hint toward Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: If the bottom is in, is this higher?

Overall, there is room for further gains, albeit with a temporary retreat.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is above 70 – indicating overbought conditions and suggesting a drop. Nevertheless, EUR/USD broke above the uptrend channel and trades above the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages, suggesting a broader uptrend. 

Beyond the daily high of 1.1215, the next cap is at 1.1240, a swing high from March. It if followed only by 1.1360, a stepping stone on the way down back then, and then by 1.1410.

Some support is at 1.1165, the daily low, followed closely by 1.1150, a swing high in March. The next lines to watch are 1.1070 and 1.1035. 

See Fibonacci lines are golden, a gold trading idea, and more – Interview with Chris Svorcik

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hits fresh two-month highs amid dollar weakness

EUR/USD has hit new two-month highs above 1.1940 as the dollar resumes its decline. Optimism about the US transition and covid vaccines is weighing on the safe-haven dollar. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls toward 1.33 amid Brexit acrimony

GBP/USD is falling toward 1.33 as both the EU and the UK are busy blaming each other for an impasse in Brexit talks. The thorny issues remain fisheries, governance and setting a level playing field.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD attempting to bounce up from $1,775 low

Gold futures accelerated heir downtrend from last week highs near $1,900, breaking below the 200-day SMA, at $1,800 area, to hit its lowest prices in nearly five months, at $1,775.

Gold news

Dollar offered ahead of the weekend

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy. In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.

Read more

Black Friday 2020 Discounts!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures