EUR/USD Forecast: Upward pressure continues ahead of Fed’s speakers

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0953

The macroeconomic calendar will feature multiple Federal Reserve speakers.
The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey improved modestly in December to -27.8.
EUR/USD consolidates near a critical Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960.

The EUR/USD pair trades within familiar levels on Tuesday as investors stand cautious ahead of critical first-tier data and central banks’ speakers spread through the next few days. The pair peaked at 1.0962 as the US Dollar remains unattractive and bottomed at 1.0934 during European trading hours.

The US Dollar eases for a fourth consecutive day amid speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) is done with monetary tightening and will engage in reverting massive rate hikes as soon as May 2024. However, upcoming inflation updates at both shores of the Atlantic prevent EUR/USD from extending its rally.

Germany will release the preliminary estimates of the November Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Wednesday, while the United States (US) will publish the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index, and the Eurozone will unveil the November HICP on Thursday.

In the meantime, Germany released the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, which improved in December to -27.8 from -28.1 in the previous month. The US macroeconomic calendar includes November CB Consumer Confidence, expected at 101.0 from 102.6 in October, and multiple Fed speakers ahead of the blackout period before the December monetary policy meeting.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart shows EUR/USD trades around its opening level, although it managed to post a higher high for the week. The pair still struggles to overcome the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1275/1.0447 slump at 1.0960, although the overall picture is bullish. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crossing above a flat 100 SMA and about to surpass a directionless 200 SMA, all of them in the 1.0790/1.0810 region. Technical indicators, in the meantime, hold within positive levels, although lacking directional strength.

The 4-hour chart shows buyers are defending the downside at around a mildly bullish 20 SMA, currently at 1.0930. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the shorter one, suggesting buyers hold the grip. Finally, technical indicators have lost their directional strength but hold well above their midlines, reflecting the absence of selling interest.

Support levels: 1.0930 1.0895 1.0860

Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1005 1.1045

View Live Chart for EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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