EUR/USD Forecast: Struggles to advance above 100-day SMA

EUR/USD advances for the fourth day in a row but loses upward momentum.
Skepticism surrounding US-China trade negotiations continued to weigh on the dollar.

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair has advanced slightly on Tuesday and is headed for its fourth daily gain in a row, as the dollar remains weak amid increasing skepticism on a positive outcome of the United States-China ‘phase one’ partial deal.

On Tuesday, media reports suggested that trade negotiations have stalled, weighing on market sentiment and favoring risk-off trades. Later in the day, US President Donald Trump said that he would "just raise tariffs" if the US does not strike a deal with China. He added that "China is going to have to make a deal."

On the data front, the US housing sector showed signs of improvement in October, as Housing Starts expanded 3.8% versus 0.6% expected, and Building Permits surpassed estimates expanding 5.0%. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy minutes on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank will publish theirs on Thursday.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical view, EUR/USD holds a positive short-term perspective, with indicators advancing above their midlines, although the RSI is approaching overbought levels, limiting the upward potential for the next hours. In the daily chart, the pair continues to trade just below the 100-day SMA (1.1092) and a breakout is needed to improve the daily perspective. Above this latter, the EUR/USD could pick up bullish momentum with the next resistance seen at 1.1175/77, where October’s monthly high converges with the 200-day SMA.

On the other hand, as long as EUR/USD holds above the 1.1030 zone, the bearish pressure might remain contained. A breakdown, however, could threaten the short-term positive bias and send the pair to 1.1000 first, en-route to a retest of 1.0879, 2019 low.

Support levels: 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000

Resistance levels: 1.1092 1.1175 1.1200

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.