EUR/USD Forecast: stable near weekly lows

  • ECB's Meeting Minutes not bringing news to the table.
  • US Producer Price Index and weekly unemployment claims up next.

Following Wednesday's turmoil, the American dollar recovers most of the ground lost against the common currency, as a strong US debt auction pushed yields lower, following the 10-month peak achieved on Chinese headlines regarding bond buying. The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1940, stable in this European session,  amid a light macroeconomic calendar ever since the day started.  Local indexes struggle around their opening levels, unable to find direction and adding to the pair's quietness in the short-term.

Later today, the ECB will release the  Minutes of its latest meeting, but no big surprises are expected there. If something, the document can bring back to the table the fact that the European Central Bank is optimistic about the economic recovery and that it will continue its gradual exit of QE. The US will bring December PPI, the usual weekly unemployment claims, and the monthly budget statement.

From a technical point of view, the downside potential is limited, as, in the 4 hours chart, the pair continues finding buying interest around a bullish 100 SMA, although it's also developing below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, this last converging with the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run, around 1.1960, now the immediate resistance. Beyond the level, the pair could recover up to 1.2000 but would need to settle beyond 1.2030, the next resistance, to actually turn bullish. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart lack directional strength but stand within negative territory. The weekly low at 1.1915, is the support to break to see the bearish movement extending, with 1.1875 the next Fibonacci support, coming next.

 View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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