EUR/USD Forecast: Looking afraid of the upside ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD is rising from 1.1200, trading in a limited range. Several positive developments support the pair, but all are tentative.

Starting from the old continent, German Industrial Production slightly beat expectations with 0.7% in February. However, today's news came after yesterday's report about a plunge of 4.2% in Factory Orders. The continent's largest economy is still somewhat struggling.

The US and China are making progress according to Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. However, no date for a summit has been set as enforcement remains a top issue in the talks. Markets want are used to this "happy talk" and want to see some real progress.

One week until the updated Brexit date, April 12th, and talk of a yearlong "flexible" extension is on the cards. UK PM Theresa May is set to ask for another Brexit delay later today. Negotiations with the opposition Labour Party continue. More: three reasons to be optimistic on the Brexit saga.

These are reasons to rise, but each one has its caveats and constraints, thus halting any advances. 

Another thing limiting the moves is the high anticipation to the critical US Non-Farm Payrolls report. After a meager increase of 20K jobs in February, a return to the previous averages of position increases is on the cards. Wages are forecast to remain upbeat. 

The data is critical for markets and the Fed. The impact could be lasting, especially if March is weak and proves not to be a one-off.

See:

• Nonfarm Payrolls preview: no fireworks, but lots of trading opportunities
• Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Jobs, claims, and sentiment

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading above the downtrend resistance line that held it down until early this week but is going nowhere fast. Momentum and the Relative Strength Index are quite balanced. The 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart held it down earlier at 1.1235. 

Further resistance awaits at 1.1255 which was the high point this week. 1.1285 was a temporary high last week, and the peak of 1.1330 is next. 

Support awaits at 1.1205 which was the low point earlier, and it is followed by the 2019 trough of 1.1176. Further down, we are back to levels last seen in 2017: 1.1115 and 1.1025.

EUR/USD will find it easier to fall than rise on NFP day – Confluence Detector