EUR/USD Forecast: Headed for a fresh bearish breakdown, EZ CPI in focus

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The US Dollar regained positive traction on Tuesday and was further supported by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upbeat outlook for the US economy. Powell's comments suggested that uncertainty over trade policy will not prevent the Fed from raising interest rates further and provided a strong boost to the greenback.

The EUR/USD pair witnessed a sharp reversal and tumbled nearly 100-pips from a multi-day high level of 1.1745. Tuesday's mixed US economic data - industrial production and capacity utilization rate did little to influence the price action, with resurgent USD demand turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's intraday fall.

The pair continued losing ground through the Asian session on Wednesday as market participants look forward to the final Euro-zone CPI print for June. With market focus moving back to the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence, a downward revision of the inflation figures would exert some additional downward pressure on the shared currency.

From a technical perspective, the pair's inability to sustain/build on its momentum beyond 50-day SMA now seems to suggest prevalent selling interest on every attempted up-move. A subsequent break below a short-term ascending trend-channel support will reinforce the bearish bias and turn the pair vulnerable to resume with its prior depreciating slide.

Weakness below the trend-channel support, currently near the 1.1630 area, is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 1.1600 handle before the pair eventually drops to 1.1565 horizontal zone en-route the key 1.1500 psychological mark, YTD lows.

On the flip side, any meaningful up-move back above 1.1670 level might continue to confront fresh supply around 50-day SMA, currently near the 1.1700 handle. Only a sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle, leading to a follow-through momentum beyond 1.1745-50 resistance might negate the near-term negative outlook and assist the pair to continue with its positive momentum.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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