EUR/USD Forecast: Finishing the month with substantial gains

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1143

European Q3 Gross Domestic Product came in better than anticipated, growth remains subdued.
US Nonfarm Payroll report to be out Friday could be a miss the market’s expectations.
EUR/USD pulled back from monthly highs but retained its bullish stance.

The EUR/USD pair seesawed between gains and losses, finishing the day pretty much unchanged in the 1.1150 price zone. The pair traded as high as 1.1175, reaching such a high following the release of some encouraging European data, and as the dollar remained pressured by Fed’s echoes. The EU reported its preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, up by 0.2%, slightly above the expected 0.1%, and preliminary October inflation, with the core yearly CPI up to 1.1% from 1.0%. German data, however, missed the market’s expectations, as Retail Sales rose by less-than-anticipated in September, up by 0.1% MoM and by 3.4% YoY. The following decline came as a result of headlines reporting that China was said to doubt it could achieve a long-term trade deal with Trump, prompting speculative interest into safe-haven assets.

The US released unemployment claims, that rose to 218K in the week ended October 25, while US-based employers announced job cuts of 50,275 in October, 20.97% higher than the 41,557 announced in the previous month. Also, core PCE inflation remained steady at 1.7% yearly basis. The numbers anticipate a weak Nonfarm Payroll October report. The US economy is expected to have added 89K new jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. Wages’ growth is seen within average, up by 0.3% MoM and by 3.0% YoY.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair was unable to advance beyond the October high at 1.1179 but ends the day, and the month quite close to it, which skews the risk to the upside. The short-term picture favours additional advances, as, in the 4-hour chart, the pair is above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading firmly north. Also, technical indicators have retreated from overbought levels, but have decelerated their declines, holding well into positive ground. The bullish potential will likely increase on a break above 1.1180, with room then to extend its advance toward the 1.1240/50 price zone.

Support levels: 1.1115 1.1080 1.1065

Resistance levels: 1.1180 1.1210 1.1245

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD treads water around 1.3400 as Hormuz risks lift USD

GBP/USD trades with caution around 1.3400 in European trading on Monday, away from an over three-week high, or levels just above the 1.3500 psychological mark touched on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a modest US Dollar rebound as investors rush to safety amid renewed jitters on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1600 amid Mideast tensions

EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a subdued note and trades below 1.1600 in the European morning on Monday, well within striking distance of a fresh high since June 17, touched in reaction to the disappointing US jobs data on Friday.

Gold climbs back to $4,350; remains below June 17 high

Gold reverses a modest intraday dip, and climbs to the top boundary of its daily range, closer to the $4,350 level heading into the European session. The commodity, however, remains below its highest level since June 17, touched on Friday, following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Cardano: Bulls eye a second leg higher as whales buy

Cardano trades above $0.196 at the start of the week after posting double-digit gains over the past two weeks. ADA’s bullish price action is supported by steady whale accumulation. Meanwhile, derivatives sentiment is showing a slight bullish tilt, suggesting a second leg higher for ADA.

The hottest trade of 2026 has a problem

The carry trade has been one of the biggest winners of the year, helped by low volatility, wide interest-rate gaps, and a relatively stable dollar. But now, parts of that setup are starting to crack.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.