EUR/USD Forecast: Euro gains traction as US trade uncertainty weighs on USD
- EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.1800 on Monday.
- US President Donald Trump hikes global tariffs after Supreme Court ruling.
- The near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the short term.
EUR/USD started the week with a bullish gap and was last seen trading in positive territory, comfortably above 1.1800. Investors will pay close attention to headlines surrounding the US President Donald Trump's administration's tariff policy.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.34% | -0.13% | 0.06% | -0.12% | -0.36% | |
| EUR | 0.32% | 0.01% | -0.05% | 0.21% | 0.40% | 0.22% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.31% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.37% | 0.19% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.42% | 0.24% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.25% | 0.18% | 0.00% | -0.24% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.40% | -0.37% | -0.42% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.24% | -0.00% | 0.18% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.24% | 0.42% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs on Friday, explaining that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners.
In response, President Trump vowed that his administration will impose even further tariffs using alternative legal frameworks, specifically citing national security conventions under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Over the weekend, Trump said that he will raise global tariffs to 15% from 10% "effective immediately" and warned that additional levies would follow.
Meanwhile, the European Commission came out with a statement on Sunday, rejecting the the US tariff increase and asking the US to stick to the terms of the EU-US trade deal reached in 2025.
The economic calendar will not offer any high-impact data releases from the US. The uncertainty surrounding the US trade regime, and its potential impact on the economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, could make it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to stage a meaningful rebound and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1820. The 20-, 50- and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) slope lower, with the 20 SMA beneath the 50 and 100, underscoring bearish pressure. Price trades below the 50 and 100 SMAs but holds above the 200 SMA, keeping broader support in place. The 50 SMA at 1.1836 acts as immediate resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 55, indicating modest positive momentum without overbought conditions.
The descending trend line from 1.2023 limits gains, with resistance at 1.1838. Measured from the 1.1590 low to the 1.2026 high, the 50% retracement at 1.1808 offers nearby support. A break below it would turn focus to the 61.8% retracement at 1.1757, while a topside breach of trendline resistance could target the 38.2% retracement at 1.1860.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
