EUR/USD Forecast: Euro bulls hesitate ahead of ECB
- EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1750 on Wednesday.
- The pair touched its highest level since late September above 1.1800 on Tuesday.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce policy decisions on Thursday.
After rising above 1.1800 for the first time since late September on Tuesday, EUR/USD lost its traction and closed the day marginally lower. The pair stays on the back foot early Wednesday and trades in negative territory below 1.1750.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.33% | 0.16% | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.31% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.23% | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Tuesday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) declined by 105,000 in October and increased by 64,000 in November. Although the immediate market reaction caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken, the currency managed to stage a rebound later in the day.
The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in about a 25% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in January, virtually unchanged from before the release of the employment data. The significant NFP decrease in October was likely caused by the loss of government jobs during the shutdown. Hence, the negative impact of this data on the USD's performance remained short-lived.
Additionally, in a blog post published on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued that the jobs data painted a mix picture and did not change the outlook. He further noted that he preferred a policy hold in December, citing multiple surveys pointing to higher input costs.
The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Wednesday but multiple Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches. In case policymakers voice their support for a policy hold in early 2026, the USD could hold its ground and make it difficult for EUR/USD to regather its bullish momentum.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce rate decisions and publish the revised macroeconomic projections.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands above the 50 and 200 SMAs, underscoring a bullish backdrop, while the pair holds above the 50 SMA near 1.1700 and the 200 SMA at 1.1600 but remains capped by the 20 SMA at 1.1745. The Relative Strength Index (14) slips to 48.83, neutral, signalling waning bullish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD now trades in the lower half of the ascending regression channel, reaffirming buyers' reluctance.
The rising trend line from 1.1500 remains intact and offers support near 1.1680, slightly below the 50-period SMA and the lower limit of the ascending channel near 1.1700. In case the pair breaks below the trend line, 1.1620 (static level) and 1.1600 (200-period SMA) could be seen as next support levels.
On the upside, 1.1750 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as the immediate resistance level before 1.1800 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
