|

EUR/USD Forecast: correcting higher, but still bearish

The American dollar started the week advancing moderately, particularly against its European rivals, with the EUR/USD falling down to 1.0963 before bouncing modestly early London, contained however, by the 1.1000 psychological level. The release of September final inflation figures in the UE matched market's expectations and previous estimates, with the core Y-o-Y reading steady at 0.8%, having a null effect over the pair.

Later today, the US will release its NY manufacturing index and industrial production data for September, while ECB's Draghi will offer the welcoming remarks at the European Cultural Days of the ECB event, in Frankfurt. He will hardly discuss economic policies then, but given that the European Central Bank will meet later this week, investors may hold on cautious ahead of his words.

The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.0900 region, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair can correct higher, but a steeper recovery seems well-limited, given that the price is well below a bearish 20 SMA, currently around 1.1010, the immediate resistance, while the Momentum indicator aims modestly higher, right below its 100 level, and the RSI indicator aims to recover from oversold territory.

Should the price manages to settle above the mentioned 1.1010 level, the pair can advance up to 1.1045/60. Above this last, the next resistance comes at 1.1090, although gains up to this last seem unlikely. The immediate support is now 1.0950, July's low, with a break below it, exposing the post-Brexit low at 1.0910.

View live chart of the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD stuck as the RBA talks tough into a slowdown

The Australian Dollar is going nowhere in a hurry, and the contradiction at its core explains why. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps dangling the prospect of another hike, yet the economy it governs just expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, a clear step down from the prior pace. A central bank threatening to tighten into a visible slowdown is not a recipe for conviction in either direction, and the tape shows it.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold declines below $4,500 on stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks, US NFP data looms

Gold price edges lower to near $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday. 


Bitcoin falls below $64K as demand turns negative, short-term holders' selling intensifies

Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000 on Thursday amid weakening market demand and mounting selling pressure from short-term holders. The leading cryptocurrency slipped toward the $63,000 level amid a broader risk-off environment, with several key metrics signaling one of the most challenging periods of the current market cycle.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.