|premium|

EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls took over with Lagarde’s optimism

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1889

  • ECB left its monetary policy unchanged, reaffirmed the need for ample support.
  • Governing Council has reportedly agreed that there is no need to overreact to euro gains.
  • EUR/USD firmly bullish and heading towards the yearly high at 1.1911.

The EUR/USD pair is up this Thursday, trading around 1.1890 as ECB’s Lagarde speaks. Easing dollar’s demand alongside an on-hold ECB is backing the shared currency this Thursday. Words from the ECB´s head are hawkish, as suspected after yesterday rumours. Despite persistent uncertainty, Lagarde started her speech mentioning a strong rebound in macroeconomic activity, although noting that it’s still below pre-pandemic levels and adding that ample accommodative support is needed.  

Among other things, Lagarde referred to the exchange rate, saying that policymakers will carefully assess developments, including it. Also,  the Governing Council has reportedly agreed that there is no need to overreact to euro gains, boosting the pair.

Meanwhile, the US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 4, which came in at 884K, worse than anticipated. The country also published August PPI which beat expectations but remained in the red at -0.2% YoY.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has trimmed 50% of its latest losses and is technically bullish in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that the price has broken above all of its moving averages, while technical indicators head firmly higher within positive levels. The 61.8% retracement of its latest daily slump comes at 1.1910, the immediate resistance level. A break above this last would open doors to a retest of the year high at 1.2011.

Support levels: 1.1850 1.1810 1.1760

Resistance levels: 1.1910 1.1950 1.1990

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikes

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The British Pound edges higher against the US Dollar on the UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England interest rate hikes.

EUR/USD nudges higher above 1.1400 as traders ramp up their bets on ECB hikes

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1430 during the early Asian session on Friday, bolstered by a softer US Dollar. The European Central Bank is grappling with elevated core inflation, forcing traders to price in more aggressive tightening despite mixed guidance from ECB officials. 


Gold hovers  below $4,150 amid subdued USD price action

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move, holding below $4,150 in the Asian session on Friday as traders await further developments surrounding the US-Iran saga. Less hawkish FOMC Minutes keep the US Dollar on the defensive and help cap any downside in the non-yielding yellow metal.


Stocks rise as chipmakers rally and Iran oil shock fears fade
Stocks found their footing because two different pressure valves opened at the same time. Oil eased as traders faded the worst-case Iran script, while chipmakers caught a separate gust of oxygen from inside the AI ecosystem itself. That distinction matters. Crude helped calm the macro room, but it was not the spark under semis.
Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Bye, forward guidance: How to trade when central banks choose silence

Central banks have spent years telling markets what might come next. Now, traders face the possibility that they say a lot less. From the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, policymakers are pushing back against forward guidance.