EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls keep pressuring despite fading optimism

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1738

• US CB Consumer Confidence unexpectedly surged in September.
• Focus shifts to the first US presidential debate to take place during Asian trading hours.
• EUR/USD is trading at one-week highs and biased higher after reclaiming 1.1700.

The EUR/USD pair surged this Tuesday to 1.1745, its highest in a week, as the market started the day in risk-on mood, which in turn weighed on the greenback. The positive sentiment faded as the day went by, amid caution ahead of the US first presidential debate, and mounting concerns about the spread of COVID-19 as Autumn kicks in in the North Hemisphere. So far, the US seems to be better positioned within the pandemic, as the number of contagions has stabilized lately. In Europe, however, new restrictive measures are coming into place, and even German’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, warned about the seriousness of the situation in Berlin.

In the data front, the EU published the September Economic Sentiment Indicator, which improved to 91.1 from 87.5 in the previous month. Germany released the preliminary estimate of September inflation, which was worse than anticipated, printing at -0.2% YoY. As for the US, the country has just published the August Goods Trade Balance, which showed that the deficit was of $-82.94B, worse than the previous $-80.11B. A positive surprise came from the CB Consumer Confidence report, which jumped to 101.8 in September, its highest level since the pandemic started.

This Wednesday will start with the mentioned presidential debate. Later in the day, Germany will publish August Retail Sales, foreseen at 4.2%. ECB’s President Lagarde is due to speak in the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt. The US will publish several macroeconomic reports, although the most important will be the ADP survey on private jobs’ creation, foreseen at  648K from 428K in August.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair holds on to most of its intraday gains, near the 50% retracement of its latest daily decline. It’s technically bullish according to the 4-hour chart, as it keeps advancing above it 20 SMA, which turned marginally higher below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, maintain their upward slopes well into positive territory, keeping the risk skewed to the upside. Further gains are to be expected on a break above 1.1780, where the pair has the 61.8% retracement of the mentioned slide.

Support levels: 1.1710 1.1660 1.1610

Resistance levels: 1.1780 1.1825 1.1870

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