EUR/USD Forecast: bears waiting for a catalyst

EU Q3 GDP seen unchanged from initial estimates.
US Political woes ignored ahead of Nonfarm Payroll report.

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

The common currency remains confined to a tight intraday range against its American rival this Thursday, showing little life during Asian trading hours. The EUR/USD pair, however, broke below the 1.1800 level on Wednesday, amid continued dollar's demand and softer-than-expected macroeconomic figures in different economies that fueled the advance. Greenback's strength remains intact, despite a possible US Government shutdown this weekend amid the federal spending having reached the debt ceiling.

In the data front, the EU will release its final version of Q3 GDP today, expected unchanged from preliminary estimates, with quarterly growth up 0.6%. As for the US, attention will gyrate around minor employment figures, relevant ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday. Challenger job cuts for November, and weekly unemployment claim figures.

The pair has broken some relevant levels this week, starting with the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run, at 1.1800. In the 4 hours chart, the pair has extended below its 100 SMA, the first time below the indicator since November 13th, while the 20 SMA has gained bearish strength above the largest, now about to cross it. In the mentioned chart, the Momentum indicator maintains its slope downward now at its lowest for December, while the RSI is neutral-to-bearish near oversold levels.

From the current level, the pair has scope to fall down to the 1.1750/60 price zone, while below this last 1.1720 comes next. Beyond 1.1800, the pair would need to surpass 1.1820/30 to be able to extend its advance, up to the 1.1870 where selling interest has contained bulls ever since the week started.

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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