EUR/USD Forecast: Bears add pressure ahead of critical United States data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0642

• The United States will publish the Gross Domestic Product and PCE inflation this week.
• The better tone of stock markets limits the US Dollar advance in a quiet start to the week.
• The EUR/USD pair gains bearish traction in the near term and approaches the 1.0600 mark.

The EUR/USD pair is under mild selling pressure at the beginning of the week, trading in the 1.0640 price zone in the European session. The US Dollar started the week with a soft tone amid easing tensions in the Middle East, but recovers the ground lost. Israel decided to take a moderated retaliation, which Iran agreed not to respond to. As a result, market players shifted the focus to upcoming macroeconomic data and their potential effects on central banks’ decisions.

Market players will be looking for growth and inflation updates in the United States (US) as the country will unveil this week the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve´s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge.

Meanwhile, stock markets trade with a positive tone in Europe, leading to some modest gains in Wall Street’s futures. So far, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer, but the Eurozone will publish April Consumer Confidence early in the American session. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at Yale University and may comment on monetary policy. The US will not release relevant figures.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for EUR/USD shows the risk skews to the downside. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its firmly bearish slope below the 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with persistent selling interest.

The near-term picture for EUR/USD is also bearish. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators have crossed their midlines into negative territory, maintaining their downward strength. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is developing below a mildly bullish 20 SMA, although the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes far above the current level. The pair bottomed at 1.0600 last week, also the year low. A break below the level should anticipate a steeper decline in the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.0600 1.0570 1.0530

Resistance levels: 1.0665 1.0700 1.0745