EUR/USD Forecast: After escaping overbought conditions, is it ready to rally?

  • EUR/USD is sticking to 1.1300 as markets remain calm. 
  • After Fed officials sent mixed messages, second-tier data awaits.
  • The technical picture is quite bullish for the pair.

EUR/USD kicks off another day in the shorter Easter week in the same old range, just around 1.1300. Stocks markets are mixed and generally calm, and the mood slightly supports the pair. 

Charles Evans, the President of the Chicago Fed, said that they can keep rates unchanged until late next year and that they could cut rates if core inflation slips to 1.5%. His dovish words slightly contrast those of Bosten Fed President Eric Rosengren that acknowledged the slowdown but does not see an upcoming recession. 

The only noteworthy US figure released so far this week has been upbeat: the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 10.1 points in April from 3.7 in March. The US releases Industrial Production today, and a small rise is on the cards. 

The most significant data point for the pair comes from Europe this week. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to turn positive, rising from -3.6 to 0.9 points. There have been some tentative signs of stabilization in the euro-zone economies. 

Looking forward, the market sentiment will be impacted by Chinese GDP. The world's second-largest economy has likely slowed to 6.3% annualized growth in Q1 2019 from 6.4% in Q4 2018. 

See: China GDP Preview: What you see is what you will get

In general, a more upbeat read is euro-positive, while a downbeat number could trigger safe-haven flows to the USD.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR USD technical analysis April 16 2019

EUR/USD is entrenched in a range between 1.1290 and 1.1330, and it trades in an even narrower range most of the time. On its way up, it broke above the 200 Simple Moving Average.

The Relative Strength Index was close to 70 which indicates overbought conditions and has now drifted down. By distancing itself from overbought conditions, EUR/USD now has room to resume its rises. 

Above 1.1330, 1.1360 is the next level to watch. It capped euro/dollar in mid-March. 1.1390 was a swing high in late March and 1.1420 was a peak beforehand. 

Below 1.1290, 1.1250 is the next support line to watch. It cushioned the pair last week. Further down, 1.1210 was a support line in early April, and 1.1176 is the lowest level this year. 

More: EUR/USD is close to critical support, break or bounce?– Confluence Detector

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