EUR/USD Forecast: A retest of the year-low on the cards

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1984

Demand for the greenback picked up as panic remains.
European and US data disappointed, doing no favour to collapsing equities.
EUR/USD at fresh March lows and poised to test the year low at 1.0777.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at fresh March lows, having lost the 1.1000 level ahead of US data, as investors can’t shrug off fears. Demand for the dollar is the main theme this Tuesday, as the world is running for safety. The shared currency is being further affected by plummeting confidence, as the March ZEW Survey showed that Economic Sentiment collapsed to -49.5 in the Union, and -49.5 in Germany. The assessment of the current situation in the country came in at -43.1.

Wall Street collapsed on Monday, and while sentiment improved during Asian trading hours, it turned back south as European traders reached their desks. The US released February Retail Sales, which came in worse than expected, down in the month 0.5%, while the core reading printed 0.0% vs an expected 0.4%. The discouraging figures surely won’t help equities to recover.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair lost the 1.1000 level before the release of US figures, triggering stops and extending its slump afterwards to the current 1.0980 price zone. The pair is now trading below the 61.8% retracement of its February/March rally at 1.1050, a relevant resistance area. In the 4-hour chart, it has broken below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators have turned sharply lower, entering oversold territory with almost vertical slopes. Despite oversold conditions, the pair could continue to fall in the upcoming session, particularly if the risk-related sentiment remains sour.

Support levels: 1.0950 1.0920 1.0880

Resistance levels: 1.1015 1.1050 1.1090

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 after mixed EU PMI data

EUR/USD manages to hold above 1.1750 but struggles to gather recovery momentum on Friday, following the mixed February PMI figures from Germany and the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, Q4 GDP, December inflation and February PMI data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

GBP/USD recovers further toward 1.3500 after UK PMI data

GBP/USD is recovering ground further toward 1.3500 in European trading on Friday, helped by a modest uptick in the Pound Sterling after stronger-than-expected UK January Retail Sales and February PMI data. However, the pair's further upside could be limited amid persistent US Dollar strength as the focus turns to key US data.

Gold sticks to positive bias above $5,000 ahead of US data

Gold gains some positive traction for the third consecutive day on Friday. holding above $5,000. Traders now look forward to the key US macro releases – the Advance Q4 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – for fresh trading impetus.

US GDP growth expected to slow down significantly in Q4 after stellar Q3

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the first preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product at 13:30 GMT. Analysts forecast the US economy to have expanded at a 3% annualized rate, slowing down from the 4.4% growth posted in the previous quarter.

Iran tensions and AI fears at the forefront ahead of key US data

Thursday’s scorecard shows major US Stock benchmarks closed modestly in the red amid mounting US-Iran tensions and AI disruption worries. The S&P 500 shed 19 points (0.3%) to 6,861, the Nasdaq 100 lost 101 points (0.4%) to 24,797, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 267 points (0.5%) to 49,395.

Official Trump price approaches breakout with mixed signals from traders

Official Trump (TRUMP) is trading at $3.50 at the time of writing, approaching its upper consolidation range. A breakout from this range could open the door for an upside move. On-chain data shows market indecision, with balanced flows between bulls and bears, signaling a lack of clear directional bias.