EUR/USD continues to drift this week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1325, up 0.11% on the day. On the release front, German GfK Consumer Climate fell to 10.4, shy of the estimate of 10.8 points. In the U.S., building permits is projected to dip to 1.32 million. CB consumer confidence is expected to improve to 132.1 points.

German consumer confidence disappointed in March. The indicator slipped to 10.4, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it’s not surprising that the German consumer is less optimistic. This release comes on the heels of German business confidence, which improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services. The manufacturing sector remains weak, battered down by the ongoing global trade war, which has dampened the appetite for German exports, such as vehicles and auto parts. Germany’s economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, and this bodes poorly for the rest of the eurozone.

Is a recession in the cards for the U.S. economy? At last week’s policy meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated it had no plans to raise interest rates in 2019 and also lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December. There was more bad news on Friday, as the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes turned negative for the first time since 2007. This is known as an inverted yield curve, which is considered a recession indicator. All eyes will be on U.S Final GDP, which will be released on Thursday. If GDP is weaker than expected, investors could lose their risk apetite and the Canadian dollar could lose ground.

Asia breathes a sigh of relief

Pound unfazed by latest Brexit development


EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (March 26)

  • 3:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.8. Actual 10.4

  • 6:30 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.32M

  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.22M

  • 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%

  • 9:00 Us S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 4.3%

  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 132.1

  • 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 12


Open: 1.1312 High: 1.1326 Low: 1.1303 Close: 1.1325


EUR/USD Technical













EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

  • 1.1300 remains a weak support level

  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line

  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046

  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1610

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD directionless just above 1.1200

The EUR/USD pair has started the week gapping lower amid tensions in the Middle East giving the greenback an extra lift. ECB monetary policy decision later this week weighing on the shared currency.


GBP/USD depressed but off daily lows

The Sterling came under selling pressure on news that Sir Alan Duncan has resigned as foreign office minister in the middle of a conflict with Iran. Tensions mounts ahead of Tories’ leadership definition.


USD/JPY remains in daily range below 108 following Kuroda comments

The USD/JPY pair is having a hard time finding direction in the second half of the day and continues to move sideways below the 108 mark.


Altcoins are set up to hunt for Bitcoin

Among the main Altcoins, only Ethereum is yet to be crossed upwards. XRP moves in another ecosystem and will not pull the market. Libra may be positive, not a danger to the market.

Read more

Gold in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below $1430 area

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band, around the $1425 region.

Gold News