EUR/USD analysis: USD leads the way

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1715

US Fed's Powell to testify before the Senate Banking Committee this Tuesday.
Majors directionless as investors maintains a cautious stance.

Trading was quite erratic across the financial world at the beginning of the day, with the dollar lower against all of its major rivals, to later recover as US Treasury yields advanced firmly for the first time in nearly two weeks. The EUR/USD pair tested a daily high of 1.1725 in the European session, holding between such high and the 1.1700 for the rest of the day. There were some relevant macroeconomic news coming from both shores of the Atlantic, although they had little saying on price action. In the EU, the goods trade balance surplus shrunk in May to €16.5B amid a fall in exports combined with an increase in imports. The US released June retail sales, which were up by 0.5% as expected, while the control group reading remained pat. On a positive note, May's readings were revised higher, offsetting the poor headlines, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 22.6, better than the 22.0 expected.

This Tuesday, market's attention will center on Fed's Powell testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and any clue he can give of future monetary policy decisions. The EU won't publish macro news, while the US will release June Industrial production and Capacity Utilization expected better than May's numbers.

Technically, the pair met sellers at around the 23.6% retracement of the April/May's decline, which has proved strong in the past and despite the modest intraday advance, it maintains a neutral technical stance, given that in the 4 hours chart, the pair is developing a handful of pips above a congestion of moving averages, which reflects the absence of a clear directional strength, while technical indicators eased within positive territory, reflecting limited buying interest. The downside potential seems also limited, at least as long as the pair holds above the 1.1660 static support.

Support levels: 1.1660 1.1620 1.1580

Resistance levels: 1.1720 1.1755 1.1790

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.