EUR/USD analysis: holding near 1.2400, key trend line around 1.2440

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2374

  • US Retail Sales better-than-expected in March, but unimpressive.
  • German ZEW survey expected to show deteriorating economic sentiment in the EU.

The greenback had a really bad start to the week, losing ground against all of its major rivals, as the weekend developments in Syria ended up pushing investors away from the American currency. The EUR/USD pair peaked for the day at 1.2394, matching last week's high before retreating, fueling by unimpressive US data. There were no relevant macroeconomic releases in the EU, while the US ones came mixed, failing to give the greenback some intraday relief. March Retail Sales were better-than-expected, but the gain was attributed to tax refunds. Sales were up 0.6% MoM against market's prevision of 0.4%. The preliminary April NY Empire State Manufacturing index came in at  15.8, well below the previous 22.5 or the expected 18.6, although still indicating growth in business activity. Also, the NAHB index showed that builders' confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down in April to 69 from a previous and expected 70. Overall the greenback is being dumped on uncertainty, and despite equities managed to gain some ground, the dollar seems condemned to weaken.

This Tuesday will bring the German ZEW survey, with economic sentiment expected to have deteriorated further in April, both for the country and the EU, while the US will offer some housing figures, and industrial production data.

The pair is technically bullish short-term, although still inside a familiar range, having topped for the day just 1 pip below last week's high of 1.2395. In the 4 hours chart, the pair has advanced above all of its moving averages that anyway continue lacking directional strength, but the Momentum indicator maintains its bullish slope well above its 100 level, while the RSI indicator also advances, although at a more moderate pace around 65, all of which supports further gains, now eyeing the 1.2440 region, where the pair has a daily descendant trend line coming from this year high at 1.2554.

Support levels: 1.2330 1.2290 1.2250                                                                     

Resistance levels:  1.2400 1.2445 1.2490

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