Money supply growth in CEE above the Eurozone

On the radar

• Inflation in Romania marginally eased to 9.6% y/y in January.
• In Slovakia inflation landed at 4.0% y/y in January.
• 4Q25 GDP grew by 2.0% y/y in Slovenia, while real wage increased 3.1% y/y in December.
• Today, Romania’s central bank holds a rate setting meeting.

Economic developments

Today we look at the development of money supply (M3) in Eurozone and CEE4 that is Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Money supply growth in the euro area underwent an unusually deep contraction through 2023 and early 2024 before rebounding sharply and peaking in mid-2025. That is a clear divergence compared to CEE4 money supply growth that has remained positive since 2023. The money supply development reflects the monetary policy stance to a great extent and different central banks’ decisions to inflation and energy shock form mid-2022. Until the end of 2024, the slight upward trend is visible in the CEE4 as key interest rates were cut across the region and monetary conditions have loosened. Last year, monetary easing was paused in Hungary and Romania. In these two countries money supply growth has slowed. Such development is also reflected in the average CEE4 money supply growth.

Market movements

We expect Romania’s central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. The key policy rate has been flat since mid-2024. At this meeting, the central bank will release an updated inflation forecast (to be revised slightly higher over the short-to-medium term). Press conference of the Governor following the central bank meeting should shed more light on future steps. Following EUR 1.75bn 10Y bond issuance in January, Slovenia decided to tap the markets again by placing additional EUR 750mn in 2036 tenor, with final spread set at MS+35bps. Demand was once again strong, with order book reported in excess of EUR 6.8bn. With 2026 gross financing just above the EUR 5bn mark, Slovenia is already almost at 50% of the FY target. Further, Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged that Donald Trump would provide assistance if Hungary ever ran into financial trouble. A promise and endorsement ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12. As for other news, The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) issued a judgment confirming that loan agreements based on the WIBOR index are compliant with EU law and that there are no grounds to question the index itself. EURPLN holds close to 421, while EURHUF moved down slightly to 377. Hungarian long-term yields, are already 13 basis points lower since the beginning of the week while in other CEE countries decline is less pronounced.

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