EU session quiet with Easter Monday holiday being observed

Notes/observations

- European markets remain close for Easter Monday holiday.

- Last Friday, Fed's Chair Powell following release of PCE deflator data said Fed is not under pressure to cut rates, but waiting too long could mean unneeded damages to the economy and the labor market; US jobs report for March set to be released this Friday.

Asia

- China Mar Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official): 50.8 v 50.1e (1st expansion in 6 months).

- China Mar Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 51.1 v 50.9 prior (5th month of expansion).

- Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: 11 v 10e; Large Manufacturing Outlook: 10 v 10e; Large All Industry Capex: 4.0% v 9.5%e; Large Non-Manufacturing Index: 34 v 32e; Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook: 27 v 30e - 20:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Trade Balance: $5.0Be v $4.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: -10.0%e v -13.1% prior;

- Japan Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 v 48.2 prelim (confirmed 10th month of contraction).

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki reiterated stance that rapid FX moves were not desirable, watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.

- Japan PM Kishida shared understanding of FX moves with top FX diplomat Kanda.

Global conflict/tensions

- Israel PM Netanyahu said the military is preparing to move more than a million Palestinian civilians out of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

- Israelis rallied in Jerusalem in the biggest protest against Netanyahu’s government; Protesters demanded early general election and a deal for hostages held by Hamas in Gaza to be released. (**Note: A court ruling freezing subsidies to yeshiva students had piled greater strain on Israel’s coalition).

- US said to be in early talks about post-war Gaza. US officials made it clear the plan would not include American boots on the ground.

- Russia fired a drone barrage at Ukraine energy facilities over the weekend in Ukraine’s south and the far west sides.

Europe

- ECB's Holzmann (Austria) noted that ECB mightstart cutting rates sooner than Fed; and would consider possible rate cut based on June Staff Projections.

- ECB's Stournaras (Greece) noted that four interest rate cuts were feasible in 2024 but such a view was not unified.

- Turkey opposition Imamoglu declared victory in Istanbul election; Erdogan’s AK Party fell behind the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in municipal elections for the first time ever.

Americas

- Fed Chair Powell commented on Friday that Fed was not under pressure to cut rates, but waiting too long could mean unneeded damages to the economy and the labor market; Still expected inflation to come down on a sometimes bumpy path to 2%. Wanted to see more good inflation readings before it could cut rates.

- US Feb PCE Deflator registered its 1st reacceleration since Aug 2023 (YoY: 2.5% v 2.5%e).

Energy

- Russia Dep PM Novak stated that Russian oil companies to reduce production in Q2 in line with production share; Russia focused on cuts in oil output, not exports in Q2.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 closed, FTSE closed, DAX closed, CAC-40 closed, IBEX-35 closed, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures +0.35%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: All major European indices are closed for Easter and will reopen tomorrow. Cash markets will reopen with the US session later in the day, with PVH expected to disclose earnings.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Turkish Airlines [THYAO.TR] -0.5% (Erdogan’s AK Party fell behind the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in municipal elections for the first time ever).

- Energy: Gazprom [GZP.RU] +0.5% (resumes Power of Siberia pipeline).

Speakers

- Japanese Bankers Association Chairman stated that was hard to say if current FX levels were good or bad for Japan.

- US said to be drawing up a list of advanced Chinese chipmaking factories barred from receiving key tools; The list could be released in the next couple of months.

Currencies/fixed income

- EU markets were again close for Easter Monday holiday and FX price action was listless.

- EUR/USD steady at 1.0785 area despite last Friday decline in French Mar Preliminary CPI reading which kept a possible April ECB easing on the back burner.

- USD/JPY steady at 151.30 with 152 level being the key resistance. Japanese authorities continued to warn against declines in the currency that were not based upon fundamentals.

Economic data

- (RU) Russia Mar Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 54.7 prior (23rd month of expansion).

- (TR) Turkey Mar Manufacturing PMI: 50.0 v 50.2 prior.

- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 49.6 v 48.8 prior.

- (GR) Greece Mar Manufacturing PMI: 56.9 v 55.7 prior (14th month of expansion).

- (GR) Greece Feb Unemployment Rate: 11.0% v 10.6% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (IL) Israel Feb Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.3% prior.

- (RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $69.4B prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.6% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -2.7% prior.

- 06:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 1.0%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 2.5% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) No Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index (UK holiday).

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.1 prior.

- 09:01 (AU) Australia Mar CoreLogic House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.6% prior.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.7 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Mar Final S&P Manufacturing PMI: 52.5e v 52.5 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 48.3e v 47.8 prior; Prices Paid: 52.9e v 52.5 prior; New Orders: 49.8e v 49.2 prior; Employment: No est v 45.9 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: +0.7%e v -0.2% prior.

- 10:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Overall Business Outlook Survey: No est v -3.2 prior; Future Sales Outlook: No est v 20 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $4.6Be v $4.6B prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.3 prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.2 prior.

- 11:00 (PE) Peru Mar CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 3.3% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.9 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.9 prior.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 18:00 (AU) Australia Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 46.8 prelim.

- 18:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Mar Minutes.

- 18:10 (AU) RBA's Kent.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 83.1 prior.

- 18:50 (US) Fed's Cook.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Mar CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.1% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Mar BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.5% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Monetary Base Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.2 prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Mar Minutes.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Mar ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements M/M: No est v -2.8% prior.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year JGB Bonds.