Elliott Wave analysis: EUR/USD could move further low after a pullback

Gregor Horvat Wavetraders

Markets are consolidating as the USD Index saw some limited upside, even vs JPY as yields turned slightly lower in recent sessions, but this may again change later today during FOMC speeches. From an EW perspective, we see USD INdex in a corrective pullback; ideally, that's going to be a three-wave set-back within wave four that can stabilize at 95.00-95.25.

EURUSD is coming much lower with an extended and accelerating price action away from 1.1607 that looks like wave 3) based on characteristics rather than wave C). As such, in the 4-hour chart, we think there will be more weakness after a pullback in wave 4), ideally down to 1.1180 area for wave D) on a daily target that can belong to a triangle, while the price is below 1.1512 invalidation level.

EUR/USD 4h Elliott Wave analysis

Check more of our analysis for currencies and cryptos in members-only area. Visit EW-Forecast for details!

Author

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold holds steady below $4,500; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

Gold consolidates its strong gains recorded over the past two days and trades below $4,500 during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting the US NFP report for cues about the Fed's policy path amid reduced September rate-hike bets. In the meantime, the recent fall in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU recover as US ISM Services PMI edges higher in August

Bitcoin (BTC) strongly rises to trade above the pivotal $80,000 level on Thursday. The Crypto King is rallying alongside broader cryptocurrency prices following the release of the United States (US) Services PMI. Gold (XAU/USD) is similarly bullish, trading at $4,500 at the time of writing. The metal is up over 2% on the day, signaling the return of bulls as market sentiment improves.

Canada's 6.4% unemployment rate: Why Friday's jobs print puts the BoC's slack story on trial

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held at 2.25% on Wednesday for a seventh straight meeting and rewrote the one paragraph that still argues against a hike. In July, the BoC’s statement called the labour market soft and pinned the unemployment rate inside a 6.5%-7% range it had held since the end of 2024. July's Labour Force Survey (LFS) then printed 6.4%.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.