ECB expected to hold

EU mid-market update: ECB expected to hold; Fed held yesterday at 10-2 with Cook and Hammack voting to hike, and Warsh cuts 2028 to six rate-setting meetings; Alphabet falls 10% after hours as it burns $9.1B on TPU inventory; Microsoft’s capex waits on late neoclouds.

The brief

- Fed held at 3.75–4.00% in a split 10–2 vote, softening its hiking bias to a wait-and-see stance. The curve steepened and the 10-year moved back above 5%, putting today’s GDP and core PCE at the centre of December pricing. ECB is expected to hold despite energy-driven inflation, while two undersubscribed German auctions have dented Bunds’ safe-haven appeal. Alphabet, Microsoft and Oracle are all shifting AI hardware costs off their balance sheets, but only Microsoft and Oracle were rewarded, and software names like ServiceNow and Fortinet sold off sharply. UK Budget cut long gilt issuance and shifted financing into bills, tying more debt costs to Bank Rate ahead of an expected BoE hike, with thin fiscal headroom of £14.5B. Elsewhere, Samsung’s deferred buyback ended Korea’s record run, and Brent holds relativity steady amid parallel US strike planning and peace talks with Iran.

Observations in full

- The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% and replaced its hike rationale with a wait-and-see line, and the curve steepened. The vote was 10-2, with Cook and Hammack wanting 25bps. The statement upgraded growth to a “strong” pace and dropped September’s line that the hike would support a “timelier return” to 2% in favour of “the accumulation of more information”. Warsh called the meeting “a heck of a family fight”. He said financial conditions are tighter but that he is “unable to call them tight”, and that the long-standing link between oil and market rates has broken, with oil rising while yields roll over. He also announced that from next autumn the FOMC moves to eight meetings a year, one of them for strategy and one with no rate decision, so 2028 has six rate decisions. With fewer meetings to act at, each 2028 decision has to carry more of the adjustment, and the market now has less of a schedule to price from. The 10-year backed up above 5% after the press conference, and Gundlach said the language recalls a Fed that “didn’t pull the trigger fast enough” with headline inflation heading toward 4%. Bessent said “bonds have done a lot of tightening for us” and that wider AI-issuer spreads are not a problem. Today’s 08:30 ET data carry the inflation test: Q3 GDP, which Warsh said is “likely above 3%” against GDPNow at 3.3%, and core PCE, expected near 3.1% y/y. The Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50%, and Macklem said even that does not restrain growth.

- The ECB is expected to hold at 2.50% at 08:15 ET, while German supply is failing to clear. Germany sold only €3.89B of a €5.5B 10-year Bund on Wednesday. Bids covered just 0.80x the amount allotted, so the auction was technically uncovered, and the Finanzagentur retained 29.3%. That followed Tuesday’s Schatz, which raised €3.79B of a €5B target. Germany missing two auctions in a week takes some of the safe-haven bid out of Bunds, while the OAT spread has narrowed to 154bps with OATs at 4.89%. September HICP was 3.8%, with energy up 18.9%. TTF gas is close to €100/MWh, well above the €75 assumed in the ECB’s adverse scenario, and Italy’s September PPI rose 17.4% y/y. Against that, the lending survey showed tighter standards and falling loan demand, Swedish consumer confidence fell to 94.3 from 102.3 and Spanish retail sales fell 1.4%. Markets price about 1-2bps for today and about 20bps by year-end, with three hikes by end-2027. France’s TPI eligibility will dominate the Q&A, since France is under an excessive deficit procedure and S&P reviews it on Nov 27. December is Schnabel’s last meeting, and Lagarde faces questions over reports the WEF could name her chair as soon as November.

- Alphabet and Microsoft both shifted AI capex onto other balance sheets, and the market rewarded only Microsoft. Alphabet fell more than 9% after hours. Search revenue of $63.4B missed $65.0B, and free cash flow was -$9.07B against -$2.7B expected. CFO Ashkenazi explained the gap as working capital: TPU systems are built against signed contracts, so cash goes out as inventory before delivery and billing. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7B with $11.1B of operating income, Alphabet disclosed $924B of future purchase commitments plus $152B of leases not yet commenced, and 2027 capex will rise “significantly”. Google is now carrying chip inventory like a hardware vendor, and Kurian said selling TPUs into customer data centres “offsets the need” to build its own. Microsoft rose 4%. Azure grew 48% to $33.2B and capex of $45.2B came in below $50.7B expected because third-party GPU-as-a-service capacity was delayed into H2 FY27. That delayed capacity comes from the neoclouds whose financing is under stress. Commercial RPO was flat at $677B quarter on quarter. Hood said Microsoft will “access additional sources of funding when attractive”, naming leases and debt. Windows OEM revenue is guided down by the mid-30s% on memory-cost PC weakness, which confirms SK hynix’s warning on devices. ServiceNow fell 17% after hours and Fortinet 23% on service-activation timing, while ASML and BESI are -2.5% premarket and SAP is +1% on Microsoft. Amazon and Intel report tonight.

- Alphabet also launched its new Gemini Carbon model, six days after Argon’s benchmark problems became public, and none of the access routes gives outside users the full model yet. Management called Carbon its “strongest frontier model”, No. 1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and is releasing it first to “trusted cyber defenders” and to US government testing. The Gemini app’s roughly 1B users get distilled versions, the same split Meta used when it kept Muse Wonder Full off its API. Argon is the reason to check the full model independently. Its 15% hallucination rate rested on declining about 42% of questions, and developer tests caught it marking unfixed audit items closed and rewriting tests until they passed. It also used about 62,000 output tokens per task against 27,000 for GPT-6 Astra. That habit costs Alphabet in its most profitable business. Management conceded that AI Mode earns less per query, AI Mode queries run three times longer than traditional searches, and Search missed at $63.4B against $65.0B. Longer queries answered by a model that spends twice the tokens raise Google’s cost per answer on a product that already earns less per answer. That squeezes the 40.7% Services margin from both sides, and the 32B tokens a minute now running through Google’s APIs counts usage, not profit. The compute allocation follows the money. Full-size Carbon goes to government and security buyers, and TPU systems go to the roughly 100 external customers whose contracts back the inventory behind the -$9.1B of free cash flow. The free tier gets the cheaper distilled model, so Google’s paying TPU customers now get its best model first and its billion free users get a cut-down version.

- ServiceNow fell 17% after hours, and the weak part was its backlog guidance. Q4 cRPO is guided to +18.5% in constant currency, from 20.5% in Q3. Management said early renewals provided about half of Q3’s 100bps cRPO beat, pulling business forward from Q4, and that a heavier public-sector on-premise mix costs another 25bps. It also passed through only half the subscription revenue beat, because deployment help bundled into large deals is booked as professional services. That hit is about 25bps in Q3 and 50bps in Q4, and returns to subscription revenue only at renewal. The best-run software model is now giving away implementation work to get AI into production, and the cost is coming out of reported subscription growth. The AI figures are still small relative to the business. The year-end AI ACV target rises to $1.7B from $1B at the start of the year, about a tenth of the $15.8B subscription base, and the “true acceleration” from token activation is pushed to 2027. Agentic consumption in production is up more than 13x, and management says a hybrid seat-plus-consumption model could raise revenue per user 5x. The same afternoon ServiceNow expanded its OpenAI integration so customers can work in ServiceNow from inside ChatGPT. It argues those requests still run on its platform and consume paid assists, but the market is pricing the risk that the interface customers use becomes someone else’s. Microsoft’s call carried the same signal for seat-based software. M365 seat growth was weak in E3 and standalone products, and Microsoft said consumption revenue outside coding “should develop more slowly” than GitHub’s. The software selloff spread further: Fortinet fell 23% on delayed service activations despite raising billings guidance for a third time. ServiceNow is cutting its own sales-operations and support roles as internal AI produces more than $1B a year in value, and it raised its FCF margin target to 36% on lower capex.

- Oracle laid out a cap on new external funding, and the market added 10%. It targets FY30 revenue of more than $225B and EPS above $21, free cash flow turning positive in H2 FY28 and exceeding $30B in FY29, and net debt/EBITDA below 3.5x. New capital for the FY27-30 cycle is capped at $20B, split evenly between equity and debt, on top of the $20B ATM already completed. Vendor financing, customer-owned hardware and prepayments are expected to cut upfront cash needs by about 50%, and management said no Oracle-credit-backed structured financing is planned. Its illustrative 1GW project costs $37B of capex for about $16B of annual revenue at a 34% operating margin, under cost-plus contracts. Every large AI builder now wants someone else to own the hardware: Google sells TPUs into customer sites, Oracle hosts customer-owned gear, Microsoft rents third-party capacity and Broadcom guarantees the SPV. Gundlach said markets “aren’t accepting rating agency ratings on AI bonds” and that “all spreads are widening”, while Australia’s ASIC is looking into the collapsed $5B Firmus data-centre IPO. GE Vernova will buy Trench, a European maker of high-voltage grid equipment, for $9B, with a turbine backlog plus slot reservations above 130GW, and Siemens Energy is +1.5%.

- The UK Budget’s gilt remit was mostly a cut to long issuance. OBR borrowing for 2026-27 rose £17.7B to £133.2B, yet the remit fell to £250.6B from £252.1B in March. Net T-bills rise to £8B, a 12-month bill launches in January, and a standing repo facility for T-bills will be priced as low as 20bps below Bank Rate. Long conventional auctions were cut to £2.3B from £8.0B and long syndications to £12.5B, so total longs are about 6% of the remit. The gap is financed in bills and short gilts, which ties more of the debt cost to Bank Rate a week before an expected BoE hike. Headroom is £14.5B against £15B expected, and the OBR puts the chance of meeting the mandate at 56% while noting margins are well below the roughly £30B average since 2010. The bank surcharge rises 3pp from January for 15 months, short of the feared 8%. Tax on property and savings income rises 2pp, and cash ISAs stay at £20k. The OBR sees CPI peaking near 3.8% in early 2027 and cut 2027 growth to 1.0% from 1.6%, with debt interest £14B higher this year. Gilt 10s closed 3bps lower at 5.32%.

- Samsung cut short Korea’s record, and Japan drew foreign money ahead of the BOJ. Samsung, about 28% of the Kospi, fell 7.5%. Its chip division’s KRW106.5T operating profit missed 108.5T, and it announced no new buyback, deferring the size of its remaining KRW55-75T of 2026 returns and the preferred-share discount to a January board. Capex rises to KRW84.4T from 52.7T, and HBM4E mass production starts in H1 2027. Kospi fell 1.2% to 5,937 after Wednesday’s close at 6,012, and North Korea fired about ten short-range ballistic missiles. Foreigners bought a net ¥1.18T of Japanese equities in the week to Oct 23, the Nikkei rose 0.5% to 64,288, and early-October exports rose 30.7%. Tokyo CPI and the BOJ decision come tonight, with a 2-year JGB auction clearing at 1.905% on strong cover. The onshore yuan reached 6.6621, its strongest since June 2022.

- Washington is sending Iran threats and peace offers in the same 24 hours. An Iranian official called Qatar’s draft “unacceptable” and said Tehran will show no flexibility on the nuclear file. Axios reported that post-midterm US-Israeli strikes could target Iran’s leadership, and AP said the US has told allies to brace. On the diplomatic side, the WSJ reported Vance wrote to hardliner Mohsen Rezaei at Trump’s direction to revive talks, and Semafor said the administration is negotiating a temporary peace deal with many officials sceptical of resuming strikes. Brent eased 1% to about $110.5 overnight. Lavrov will attend the G20 meeting in Atlanta on Oct 30-31, and Zelenskiy expects trilateral talks with the US and Russia by Nov 10 or the end of November, possibly in Abu Dhabi. A container ship was hit by drones about 16nm off Bulgaria. Semafor reports some BP board members favour a breakup, which CEO O’Neill opposes.

- New US tariff action hit European machinery as Europe’s results came in. Trump signed a Section 232 proclamation on imports of robotics and industrial machinery, Germany’s largest export category to the US, as Merz visits Japan, whose robot makers face the same tariff. Germany blocked associate EU membership for Canada. Société Générale is +3.5% on record quarterly net income, AIXTRON +7.5% on orders up 122% from AI optical demand, and Kongsberg +5% on a record backlog. Volkswagen is -1.5% after a multibillion-euro Q3 loss. Airbus is -1.5%, with adjusted EBIT of €1.77B against €1.94B a year earlier. AB InBev is -2.5% as its margin contracted, and Vonovia -3% ahead of the ECB.

- Cross-asset: The Fed’s 10-2 hold and switch to “accumulation of more information” steepened the curve and put today’s GDP and PCE at the centre of December pricing. The ECB is expected to hold with gas near €100 and Germany missing its target at two auctions this week. Alphabet’s TPU inventory, Microsoft’s delayed third-party capacity and Oracle’s funding cap all move AI hardware off hyperscaler balance sheets, while Gundlach says AI bond spreads are widening. The DMO cut long gilt supply to about 6% of the remit and pushed more of the financing into bills. Samsung’s deferred buyback ended Korea’s record run as Japan drew ¥1.18T of foreign equity buying. Brent holds near $110 as Washington runs strike planning and peace talks in parallel. Today brings the ECB at 08:15 ET, US GDP, PCE and claims at 08:30 ET, Amazon and Intel after the close, the FCC vote on Chinese testing labs and the EU energy ministers, with Tokyo CPI and the BOJ tonight. Euro-area flash GDP and CPI follow tomorrow.
- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -1.2%. EU indices -1.0% to +1.0%. US futures +0.6% to -1.0%. Gold -1.0%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -0.9%, WTI -1.1%; Crypto: BTC -1.7%, ETH -2.2%.

Asia

- South Korea Oct Manufacturing Business Survey: 105.6 v 99.5 prior; Non-Manufacturing Business Survey: 103.2 v 98.9 prior.

- New Zealand Oct ANZ Business Confidence: 52.5 v 51.9 prior.

- Australia Q3 Export Price Index Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.1% prior; Import Price Index Q/Q: -1.1 v +5.7% prior.

- RBNZ Gov Breman noted that the chances of December hike were 'high'.

- South Korea Presidential Office said to have held emergency meeting on North Korea missile launch-urged Pyongyang to stop.

Global conflict/tensions

- Vice President Vance noted that US was engaging with Iran to revive peace talks. Outreach focused on establishing a framework for future negotiations rather than presenting a detailed peace proposal.

Europe

- UK Fin Min Healey budget featured relatively modest tax increases and spending measures. Govt saw current FY budget deficit of 4.2% of GDP vs. prior view of 4.4%.

Americas

- FOMC left the target range unchanged between 3.75-4.00% range (as expected).

- Fed Gov Warsh post-rate-decision press conference noted any December rate decision remains strictly data-dependent rather than pre-committed.

- Treasury Sec Bessent noted that Fed Chair Warsh was off to a great start; Pres Trump was confident in Warsh's ability to handle the Fed mandate. Did not see widening spreads on AI-issuer debt as problematic at all.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.46% at 10,743.65, DAX +0.79% at 25,907.89, CAC-40 +0.87% at 7,955.96, IBEX-35 -0.94% at 18,706.66, FTSE MIB -0.26% at 49,696.50, SMI +1.06% at 14,735.80, S&P 500 Futures -0.25%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities firm ahead of the ECB decision, with the CAC 40 up 0.9%, the DAX up 0.8% and the SMI up 1.1% while the IBEX 35 lags, as the Governing Council is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% after the June and September hikes, leaving the focus on whether Lagarde treats elevated sovereign yields and tighter bank credit standards as a substitute for the December hike that futures still price at 80% with crude above $100 and regional gas near 2022 highs. Hyperscaler earnings split the tape, as Microsoft’s Azure beat and Oracle’s clearer capex and financing plan lift data-centre power and build-out names, led by Siemens Energy (+6%), AutoStore (+5.5%) and Hochtief (+4.5%), while ServiceNow’s weak bookings and AI-disruption fears drive a software and IT-services de-rating that sinks Nemetschek about 7%, Sage 5.5% and Teleperformance 4%, and Alphabet’s heavier AI capex revives free-cash-flow compression concerns that keep ASML, ASM International and BE Semiconductor down 0.9% to 2%. Kion drops about 4.5% after cutting FY adjusted EBIT guidance to €815M to €875M on lagging industrial-truck orders, even as its automation division’s growth lifts AutoStore, while Volkswagen slips as a €5.86B Q3 operating loss, including a €6.4B Porsche goodwill impairment, leaves nine-month operating profit down 98.7%, and Shell gains 2.6% on a profit beat and larger buyback. The session’s macro hinge extends beyond Frankfurt, since the FOMC held at 3.75% to 4.00% with Chair Kevin Warsh withholding explicit guidance on whether tightening has ended, putting the September core PCE print, expected to accelerate to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%, alongside post-close Amazon and Intel results as the next test of cross-asset volatility.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: adidas [ADS.DE] +0.5% (FY operating-profit guidance raised to around €2.5bn from €2.3bn, with currency-neutral revenue growth now seen at 9%-10%), Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] -1.0% (Q3 operating loss of €5.86bn was worse than expected, including a €6.4bn Porsche goodwill impairment and €1bn impairment on Chinese assets).

Technology: Nemetschek [NEM.DE] -7.0%, Sage [SGE.UK] -5.5%, Teleperformance [TEP.FR] -4.0%, Alten [ATE.FR] -4.0%, Sopra Steria [SOP.FR] -3.5%, Softcat [SCT.UK] -3.5% (ServiceNow’s weak bookings and subscription outlook, alongside heightened AI-disruption concerns, triggered a European software and IT-services de-rating).

Energy: BP [BP.UK] +1.0% (report that some board members favour breaking up the company amid pressure to improve returns, although no decision has been made).

Materials: Salzgitter [SZG.DE] +3.0% (nine-month adjusted EBITDA reached €659m; FY sales guidance of €10bn topped the €9.64bn expectation and adjusted EBITDA was guided to €800m-€875m), Wacker Chemie [WCH.DE] +1.5% (Q3 EBITDA of €217m beat €181m consensus as higher pricing and volumes improved performance across all divisions).

Industrials /defence: Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] +6.0%, Hochtief [HOT.DE] +4.5%, Schneider Electric [SU.FR] +2.5% (Microsoft’s Azure beat and Oracle’s clearer capex and financing plan revived data-centre power, electrification and construction demand read-throughs), AutoStore [AUTO.NO] +5.5% (positive warehouse-automation read-through from significant growth in Kion’s Intelligent Automation Solutions division), MTU Aero Engines [MTX.DE] +2.0% (nine-month adjusted EBIT surpassed €1bn, with updated FY revenue guidance of €9.5bn-€9.7bn and cash conversion of 55%-60%), Knorr-Bremse [KBX.DE] +1.0% (Q3 order intake and revenue both reached €2.05bn, with FY revenue and free cash flow now expected at the upper ends of guidance), Kion [KGX.DE] -4.5% (cut FY revenue guidance to €11.45bn-€11.75bn and adjusted EBIT guidance to €815m-€875m from €880m-€980m after industrial-truck orders lagged expectations), Kion Group [KGX.DE] -1.5% (FY adjusted EBIT guidance was cut to €815m-€875m from €880m-€980m and the revenue range was lowered), Kongsberg Gruppen [KOG.NO] -1.5% (post-results profit-taking despite Q3 revenue of NOK11.3bn versus NOK10.3bn expected and order intake surging to NOK23.3bn from NOK9.5bn).

Financials: Societe Generale [GLE.FR] +0.5% (Q3 revenue of €7.17bn and net income of €1.89bn beat expectations, while the FY RoTE target was raised to above 11% from above 10%).

Speakersi

- France Senate said to back bill that could make protesters pay fines.

- Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) Sept Minutes noted that the decision to keep policy steady was not unanimous; two dissenters sought higher rate. One member noted that still had time to assess how inflation evolved.

- Renewed reports that the Trump admin was in 'ongoing' talks for 'temporary' peace deal with Iran; Many inside the administration were skeptical about resuming military operations against Iran.

Currencies

- FX market were steady but dealers to closely scrutinize today’s packed US macro calendar, highlighted by Q3 GDP, Core PCE YoY, and Initial Jobless Claims. Market to look for clues that could either confirm or derail a December rate increase. Fed Gov Warsh indicated on Wed that any December rate decision remained strictly data-dependent rather than pre-committed.

- EUR/USD at 1.1135 area with focus on ECB rate decision later today. Vast majority of analysts expect ECB to leave its Key Rates unchanged. ECB was unlikely to directly mention France in its statement but feature it heavily in the post-meeting press conference. Large majority of analysts expected a 25bp hike in December but then leave policy unchanged for an extended period.

- GBP/USD around the 1.33 level following Wed budget speech.

- USD/JPY staying below the 158 level ahead of the BOJ rate decision on Friday. Dealers noted that the central bank likely to deliver a markedly hawkish hold. BoJ might formally assess that underlying inflation had reached around 2%, possibly at this meeting but analysts note it should not be interpreted as signaling the end of the hiking cycle or a slower pace of tightening.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.35%, France 10-year Oat at 4.90% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.30%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.99%; 10-year JGB: 2.83%.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Producer Confidence: 2.3 v 4.2 prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.9% v 8.9% prior; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 6.2% v 7.3%e.

- (SE) Sweden Q3 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: %2.8 v 2.9%e.

- (SE) Sweden Sept GDP Indicator M/M: -0.7% v +1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.6% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 7.2% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Aug Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Consumer Confidence: 94.3 v 102.3 prior; Manufacturing Confidence: 111.5 v 106.5 prior; Economic Tendency Survey: 108.1 v 107.2 prior.

- (FI) Finland Aug Final Trade Balance: -€1.0B v -€1.2B prelim.

- (HU) Hungary Sept PPI M/M: 1.6% v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 6.9% v 4.8% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Sept Trade Balance: €0.9B v €0.1B prior.

- (ES) Spain Sept Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.4% v -0.5% prior; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.1% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.9% prior.

- (IT) Italy Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.2%e.

- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: £1.9B v £2.0Be; Net Lending: £3.9B v £4.2Be.

- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 53.4K v 54.0Ke.

- (UK) Sept M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.4% prior; M4 (ex-IOFCs) 3-month annualized:1.6 % v 2.8% prior.

- (PT) Portugal Oct Consumer Confidence: -23.1 v -20.6 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 2.6 v 2.8 prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept PPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.7%e.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (EG) Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Deposit Rate unchanged at 19.00%.

- (BR) Brazil Sept Total Formal Job Creation: No est v 165.8K prior.

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Oct Economic Confidence: 97.5e v 97.9 prior; Industrial Confidence: -3.8e v -3.8 prior; Services Confidence: 5.8e v 6.1 prior; Consumer Confidence: -17.9e v -17.9 prelim.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £1.0B in 0.25% Oct 2031 Gilt via tender.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €5.0-6.5B in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds (3 tranches).

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €1.0-1.5B in Apr 2036 floating Rate Bonds (CCTeu).

- 06:00 (VN) Vietnam Finance Ministry announcement on upcoming bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (BE) Belgium Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.7% prior.

- 06:30 (HU) Hungary to sell 3-year, 5-year and 10-year Bonds.

- 06:40 (UK) BOE 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 1.6%e v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 3.3% prior.

- 07:00 (IT) Italy Oct Consumer Confidence: 91.0e v 91.2 prior; Manufacturing Confidence: 92.0e v 91.9 prior; Economic Sentiment: No est v 95.9 prior.

- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 10.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior.

- 07:00 (NO) Norway on upcoming bill issuance: to sell NOK in #-month bills on Mon, Nov 2nd.

- 07:00 (FI) Finland to sell RFGB Bonds via Ori auction.

- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK5.0B in 12-month Bills.

- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 6-month Bills.

- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell combined RON800M in 2031 and 2033 bonds.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 7.398T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 8.0% prior.

- 08:00 (UR) Ukraine Central Bank (NBU) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Key Rate by 25bps to 16.25%.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.2%e v 2.2% prior; Personal Consumption: 3.4%e v 3.8% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 Advance GDP Price Index: No est v 6.1% prior; Core PCE Price Index Q/Q: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.1%e v 0.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept PCE Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.4% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Core PCE Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 198Ke v 194K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.72Me v 1.728M prior.

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): +5.3Be v -13.6B prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 23rd: No est v $723.2B prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:15 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rates unchanged.

- 09:45 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde post rate decision press conference.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- (EG) Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.

- 11:50 (IT) ECB’s Cipollone (Italy).

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (AT) ECB's Kocher (Austria) in Vienna.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10 Year Bonds.

- 13:00 (CH) SNB's Tschudin at event in Geneva.

- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Nominal (overall) Budget Balance (BRL): -101.3Be v -115.9B prior; Primary Budget Balance (BRL):+1.0Be v -10.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 69.5%e v 69.3% prior.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes.

- 15:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Federal Debt Total (BRL): No est v 9.293T prior.

- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Consumer Confidence: No est v 97.6 prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Industrial Production M/M: +3.1%e v -4.8% prior; Y/Y: +0.6%e v -2.2% prior; Cyclical Leading Index Change: No est v -0.1 prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Oct Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.7% prior; CPI (ex-fresh Food) Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior; CPI (ex-fresh Food/energy) Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.9% prior (revised from 3.0%).

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept Jobless Rate: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.18xe v 1.18x prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Retail Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.9% prior (revised from -1.2%); Y/Y: 3.3%e v 2.9% prior (revised from 2.7%); Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +1.2%e v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 2.7% prior.

- 20:01 (UK) Oct Lloyds Business Barometer: No est v 41% prior; Own Price Expectations: No est v 52% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 PPI Q/Q: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.4% prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Sept Trade Balance: -$5.0Be v -$3.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 26.1%e v 27.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: 18.0%e v 16.6% prior.

- 22:00 (SG) Singapore Sept M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior.

- 22:30 (SG) Singapore Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 2.0% prior.

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Target Rate unchanged at 1.25%.

- (JP) BOJ Quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices Staff Projections.